尼日利亚的汇率管理和进口融资:计量经济学分析

Samuel. O. Dada, O. I. Wale-Awe, Mercy Femi-Olagundoye
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摘要

尼日利亚严重依赖进口,需要大量外汇来结算其贸易义务。但是,对外汇的需求远远超过现有的供应,导致汇率不断波动。该研究考察了2000年至2022年汇率管理(以汇率、利率、通货膨胀率、外国直接投资和外国证券投资为代表)对进口融资的影响。采用增广Dickey-Fuller (ADF)检验检验数据的平稳性。同样,协整的边界检验被用来评估变量之间的长期关系。最后,采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型来评价变量之间的关系。研究发现,外国直接投资、外国证券投资、汇率、通货膨胀率和利率共同显著影响尼日利亚的进口融资。该研究建议政策制定者关注外汇的供给面,通过向出口商提供激励措施来增加外汇收入,同时通过限制某些商品的进口来减少不必要的需求,从而有效地节约外汇储备。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Exchange Rate Management and Import Financing in Nigeria: An Econometric Analysis
Nigeria relies heavily on imports, requiring considerable foreign exchange to settle its trade obligations. However, the demand for foreign currency far exceeds the available supply, resulting in constant fluctuations in the exchange rate. The study examined the impact of exchange rate management (proxied by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate, foreign direct investment, and foreign portfolio investment) on import financing from 2000 to 2022. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was used to check the stationarity of the data. Likewise, the Bound Test for Co-integration was used to assess the long-term relationship between the variables. Finally, the study adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to evaluate the relationship among the variables. The findings revealed that foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment, exchange rate, inflation rate, and interest rate jointly and significantly influenced import financing in Nigeria. The study recommended that policymakers focus on the supply side of foreign exchange to boost foreign exchange earnings by providing incentives to exporters while concurrently reducing unnecessary demand by restricting the import of certain goods, thereby effectively conserving foreign exchange reserves.
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