Victoria January to June 2023

Many Victorians would have been glad that politics became a less prominent feature in the media at the start of 2023. The weeks leading into this year were marked with an intense election campaign that resulted in Labor winning 56 of the 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly at the election in late November, while the results of the Legislative Council were finalised just days before Christmas. The preceding year, however, set the tone for 2023 with the practice of Victorian politics seemingly unchanged in the new year. Labor, led by Daniel Andrews, appeared to be comfortably advancing its legislative and political agenda. In contrast, the major opposition party, the Liberal Party, led by John Pesutto, continued to struggle to make an impact on state politics.

The same sorts of challenges the two major parties experienced in 2022 also continued into the new year. For Labor, questions about accountability and integrity provided a source of distraction, while questions about the Liberal Party's principles and personnel continued to haunt the party's leader.

One of the first political issues that emerged in Victoria in 2023 was the issue of how to mark the 26^th of January, the date on which Australia Day has been a public holiday in all jurisdictions since 1994. Festivities, including a parade through Melbourne, were part of traditional Australia Day events. These events were cancelled in 2021 due to COVID restrictions. The Victorian government also cancelled the parade in 2022 because, as Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan explained, “This has got everything to do with how, as a community, we choose to mark the day differently” (cited in The Age, 21 January 2023).

In 2023, the Andrews Government made a more explicit announcement about why it would be cancelling the annual Australia Day parade, and holding other events and activities in Federation Square, by stating that the “Victorian Government recognises 26 January represents a day of mourning and reflection for some Victorians, and is a challenging time for First Peoples” (Victorian Government, 5 July 2023).

Public support for this decision came from the First Peoples' Assembly of Victoria whose co-chair, Marcus Stewart, said that the “parade was a slap in the face and only rub[s] salt in the wounds. It was a mark of the harm and the hurt that was caused through colonisation” (cited in SBS News, 22 January 2023). In contrast, the Opposition Leader John Pesutto called on the Premier to “explain to Victorians why this important event will not be proceeding” as it was “a popular family event that both brought communities together and people into our CBD” (cited in The Age, 21 January 2023).

As one of the first issues to engage major party leaders in Victoria in 2023, the question of marking Australia Day became symbolic of state politics in the first half of the year. The Andrews Government was able to progress on its policy agenda, while the Opposition scrambled to draw the public's attention to its own set of principles and plans. The political focus, however, quickly shifted away from the major parties and onto the Greens in the second month of the year.

In February 2023, Senator Lidia Thorpe announced that she would be leaving the Australian Greens and serving the remainder of her term as an Independent. Thorpe had represented the inner-metropolitan electorate of Northcote in the Victorian Parliament after winning a by-election in 2017. She lost the seat at the general election in 2018 but, in 2020, she replaced the Greens' former party leader and fellow Victorian Richard Di Natale when he resigned from the Senate in 2020.

Senator Thorpe continued to build a high public profile in Victorian politics in the first half of 2023. In March, she made allegations that she had been sexually assaulted and harassed in the Australian Parliament (ABC News, 10 March 2023), while in May it was reported that Thorpe claimed that “she experienced racism during her time” in the Greens (The Guardian, 28 May 2023). Following the passage of the bill that would provide for the referendum on the Voice to Parliament in June, Senator Thorpe announced that she would be supporting the No campaign. In doing so, Thorpe would become a highly prominent figure in state and national politics during the second half of 2023.

Premier Daniel Andrews became the first head of government from Australia to take an official trip to China since the start of COVID-19 (The Age, 26 March 2023). According to the Premier, the trip involved meetings with political leaders from provinces including Jiangsu and Sichuan as well as meetings with national government representatives in Beijing, with a key aim being to attract students to the state (The Age, 26 March 2023).

The Premier was subject to questions about the planned visit as it did not include other ministers, nor a media contingent. In justifying the absence of state or national media organisations during the trip, Andrews commented that “There's no big events. We're not doing tours. It's back-to-back meetings. That's why we won't be bringing the media with us” (The Age, 26 March 2023).

The lack of media was in contrast to the approach taken by the Premier of Western Australia, Mark McGowan, who announced at the start of April that he too would be visiting China but would be accompanied by the media on the trip (The Guardian, 2 April 2023). This provided an opportunity for the Victorian Opposition to criticise Premier Andrews and question his integrity. The Liberal Party leader, John Pesutto, argued that the Premier's announcement “poses more questions than answers”, and that “[i]f it's good enough for Mark McGowan to bring media and to give advance notice of his trip, why didn't the Premier do the same?” (The Guardian, 2 April 2023).

The Premier's public outcomes report about the trip revealed that the cost of the visit included over $61,000 for airfares and close to $15,000 for accommodation (Victorian Government, 29 June 2023). The Premier reported that meetings were held with China's Minister for Education, and leaders of Jiangsu and Sichuan provinces on matters including tourism and education opportunities (Victorian Government, 29 June 2023).

The Andrews Government was the subject of more questions about accountability and integrity in the first half of 2023. These followed investigations concerning the government's probity including inquiries into the so-called ‘red shirts’ affair and allegations of branch-stacking. In April, a report by the Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission (IBAC) released its findings following the conclusion of Operation Daintree. This operation sought to investigate how a contract worth $1.2 million had been awarded to the Health Education Federation (HEF) which was linked to the Health Workers Union (IBAC, 19 April 2023).

IBAC noted that the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) awarded the contract “less than a day before the government” entered caretaker mode prior to the 2018 election (Operation Daintree Special Report, April 2023, p4). The program aimed to provide 575 health workers with skills training on occupational violence and aggression (Operation Daintree Special Report, April 2023, p. 4).

IBAC reported that a ministerial adviser to the Minister for Health and a ministerial adviser in the office of the Premier “intruded into DHHS's management of the contract in ways favourable to the HEF and against the public interest” (Operation Daintree Special Report, April 2023, p. 5). While these actions were not necessarily ‘corrupt’, they did “reveal a range of concerning conduct and omissions in breach of the public duties and ethical obligations of ministers and ministerial advisors” (Operation Daintree Special Report, April 2023, p. 6). IBAC made 17 recommendations and requested that the government provide a progress report by 31 October 2023.

While Premier Andrews reacted to the report by stating that it was “an educational report, not a report delivered because wrongdoing was found”, an expert in accountability and integrity argued that the Premier's response was “a very incorrect interpretation of this report” and “[p]lenty of wrongdoing is found” (The Age, 21 April 2023). This mobilised the opposition parties to attack the government as they vowed to strengthen the capacity of the state's anti-corruption commission to undertake its work.

The Victorian 2023/24 state budget, delivered on 23 May, highlighted the emphasis the Andrews Government placed on reducing expenditure while maximising tax revenue in the ‘post-COVID’ era. This included reducing the number of public servants by roughly 3–4,000 to reduce the annual salary paid by the state. During his speech, Treasurer Tim Pallas vowed that reduction of staff would not affect “frontline workers”. The government also aimed to reduce the costs associated with engaging consultants.

A key feature of the budget was the implementation of a new “COVID Debt Levy”. This would be in place for the next ten years and would seek to increase revenue collected from targeted sections of the community. The levy would require large businesses to pay more in payroll tax. The land tax tax-free threshold was also lowered from $300,000 to $50,000, a change that was estimated to affect 380,000 properties (ABC News, 23 May 2023). Other measures designed to increase revenue included ending exemptions from payroll tax for independent schools. Despite these changes, it was still estimated that net debt in Victoria would continue to rise and reach over $171 billion by June 2027 (ABC News, 23 May 2023).

The budget was not all about reducing costs, however, as many major initiatives were resourced. A program for free kindergarten, including a new three-year-old kindergarten program, was funded as were projects that would build or redevelop hospitals across the state (ABC News, 23 May 2023).

The title of the budget was “Doing What Matters”, the same slogan used by the Labor Party at the 2022 state election, and was ostensibly crafted to present the Andrews Government as able to navigate challenging financial times resulting from COVID-19. Both the Premier and Treasurer were at pains to demonstrate their commitment to improving the budget situation in Victoria. For example, Treasurer Pallas announced that “our kids will of course have memories of the trauma that was the Covid years, they won't necessarily be paying for that trauma for the rest of their lives” (cited in The Guardian, 23 May 2023). Similarly, Premier Andrews stated that he would “fully acknowledge that there were some very difficult decisions that had to be made in this budget, and I'm not about kicking things down the road”, and that he was “not here to be popular” (cited in News.com.au, 24 May 2023).

As is the norm, the Opposition spoke against key elements of the supply bills but did so by attacking the spirit of the budget. According to Liberal leader Pesutto, the budget was “mean” and “nasty” and the additional costs would lead to greater financial challenges for Victorians (ABC News, 23 May 2023).

While the budget did attract criticism, especially from those who would be impacted by the new COVID Debt Levy, it did not seem to have much of an impact on the parties' electoral support. In the Resolve Strategic survey published in The Age on 14 June, Labor's primary vote was down by just 1 point to 41 per cent which was still 15 points ahead of the Coalition on 26 per cent.

Throughout most of the first half of 2023, the Liberal Party was beset by internal instability. In February, former leader Matthew Guy, who had led the party to two consecutive election losses in 2018 and 2022, openly criticised the organisational wing of the party. Of particular concern was the post-election report undertaken by state party president Greg Mirabella (The Age, 17 February 2023).

Further instability arose from a dispute between party leader Pesutto and newly elected MP Moira Deeming and her supporters. Deeming had been elected to the Legislative Council at the 2022 election. In presenting his vision as leader in December 2022, Pesutto aimed to appeal to a broad range of Victorians and was often presented as a ‘moderate’ of the Liberal Party meaning that he was not regarded as an ideological warrior, even though his critics highlighted that he had worked for the Institute of Public Affairs in the past (see The Age, 2 December 2022). In March, Deeming was present at a rally where Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull –a so-called “anti-transgender activist” – was speaking, and where members of the National Socialist Network reportedly performed the Nazi salute (The Guardian, 20 March 2023). Upon being made aware of this, Pesutto moved to remove Deeming from the parliamentary team of the Liberal Party. According to Pesutto, Deeming could no longer be a member as she had “involvement in … promoting and participating in a rally with speakers and other organisers who themselves have been publicly associated with far rightwing extremist groups including neo-Nazi activists” (cited in The Guardian, 20 March 2023). Deeming, in response, argued she had “done nothing wrong” and labelled as “utterly false” the “premise that anyone who chooses to speak out reasonably, constructively, and legally is somehow an endorsement for anyone at all who happens to show up at a public event” (The Guardian, 20 March 2023). Deeming believed she was being treated unfairly by the party's leadership (The Guardian, 20 March 2023).

This dispute reenergised existing factional tendencies between those Liberals who held more socially progressive views and those with more socially conservative ideals. At a meeting in late March, Pesutto announced that Deeming would be suspended for nine months and would relinquish the role of party whip. This, according to Pesutto, was in lieu of expulsion as “Ms Deeming had condemned Nazism and bigotry against the LGBTQI community” (Financial Review, 27 March 2023). This episode cast doubt on the strength of Pesutto's leadership and led Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist and prominent political commentator, to call the Victorian Liberal party “a shambles” (cited in Financial Review, 27 March 2023).

The matter did not end there for the Liberal Party as Deeming intended to challenge her suspension and reportedly indicated her intention to sue Pesutto for defamation (The Age, 4 May 2023). While Deeming subsequently announced that she had “never once considered suing the Liberal party” (The Guardian, 6 May 2023), this triggered further speculation about the Liberal Party's organisational cohesion. In a subsequent party room meeting in May, Deeming was expelled by a vote of 19–11.

Pesutto's authority as leader was further questioned during the party's State Council meeting held in Bendigo in late May. Deeming's supporters yelled “shame”, some wore masks with Deeming's face, while others walked out (ABC News, 20 May 2023). While other members supported Pesutto at the meeting, this episode highlighted the continuing tensions and divisions within the organisational and parliamentary wings of the party. Even after suffering three consecutive election losses – the last two with significant margins – the Liberal Party still appeared unsure of its policy and personnel moving forward. This was reflected in opinion polls which showed just 26 per cent of Victorians nominated Pesutto as preferred premier, compared to 49 per cent for Daniel Andrews (The Age, 14 June 2023).

Within this context, Ryan Smith, who represented the seat of Warrandyte for the party since 2008, decided to retire. The electorate covered eastern suburbs in Melbourne including Ringwood North and Warranwood. Smith had served as Minister for Environment and Climate Change as well as Minister for Youth Affairs in the Baillieu and Napthine Coalition Governments between 2010–2014. In 2022, Smith retained the seat with a two-party preferred margin of 4.3 per cent. In explaining his reason to retire, Smith stated that he had “become increasingly uncomfortable with the growing negative tone of politics, both internally and more broadly” (cited in The Age, 31 May 2023). A by-election would be held to elect Smith's successor in August 2023 and would serve as the first electoral contest for John Pesutto.

The first Victorian Labor Party conference in the post-COVID era was held in June. It was also the first conference following the intervention of the party's national executive in the Victorian branch following allegations of branch stacking in 2020.

The conference was held at the Monee Valley Racecourse and was attended by Premier Andrews who paid tribute to the party's staff and volunteers for their efforts during the 2022 state election. The Premier also sought to highlight what he perceived as a problem with gender in the Liberal Party. In his speech, the Premier stated that “A lot is said about our opponents' ‘women problem’ – that they have a problem with women. Well, women seem to have a problem with them” (cited in The Guardian, 17 June 2023).

The Premier's speech also focused on supporting the Voice to Parliament. He implored Labor partisans to actively support the Voice proposal. As he put it, “[w]hether your family has been here for five years, or 50,000 – this is a juncture in our history that calls on us to stand together” (cited in The Guardian, 17 June 2023).

The Prime Minister attended and addressed the conference. A key theme of Anthony Albanese's speech was also galvanising support for the Voice. According to Albanese, voting for the Voice would “say yes to practical change that will help close the gap and improve lives” (cited in The Guardian, 17 June 2023).

Motions passed at the conference included the recognition of Palestine as a state from the Left faction of the party (The Australian, 20 June 2023). In response, Daniel Andrews reaffirmed his position as a strong supporter of Israel's sovereignty and that if he had been at the conference at the time of the vote, he would not have voted for the motion (The Australian, 20 June 2023).

The Premier's own future was raised at the conference. Prior to the 2022 election, Andrews had vowed to serve a full term. Speculation was rising, however, that he might retire early and allow his deputy, Jacinta Allan, to take the premiership (Shepparton News, 17 June 2023). While this was just a footnote to the conference, the Premier's plans became clear in the second half of 2023.