Estimating the potential distribution of yellow spotted stink bug (Erthesina fullo) using ecological niche models

Invasive insect species threaten the productivity of ecosystems worldwide, and ecological niche models can be used to predict distributions of invaders and guide management efforts. Ecological niche models can also aid monitoring for invasive species that are globally distributed. One such species is the yellow spotted stink bug (Erthesina fullo Thunberg), a polyphagous pest native to Asia that has established in Europe and South America and threatens specialty crops. Here, we used ecological niche models to predict the potential distribution of E. fullo, and created a website to display predictions. We show that E. fullo has peak occurrence probability in areas with annual mean temperatures around 20°C, and that the occurrence probability increases as maximum monthly temperature reaches up to 38°C. The likelihood of occurrence decreased as annual precipitation increased, but increased with greater precipitation in the wettest and driest months. This suggests E. fullo is most suited to regions that are warm and dry and where most precipitation occurs across only a few months, such as southern North America, central and southern South America, southern Europe, southern Africa, and central and eastern Australia. Given that E. fullo is a highly mobile hitchhiking insect that travels through cargo and other containers to new areas, the potential spread of this species into new regions should be carefully monitored.