加纳与能源有关的温室气体排放预测模型,实现净零排放的未来

IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS
Yen Adams Sokama-Neuyam, Samuel Mawulikem Amezah, Stephen Adjei, Caspar Daniel Adenutsi, Samuel Erzuah, Jonathan Atuquaye Quaye, William Ampomah, Kwame Sarkodie
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引用次数: 0

摘要

加纳决心到 2030 年将温室气体排放量至少减少 15%,到 2070 年实现净零排放。然而,与许多发展中国家一样,加纳必须有效利用其有限的资源来实现其气候目标。目前,该国的气候政策并非由排放数据驱动,这对有效利用资源和选择高效的减排技术具有重要影响。我们分析了加纳能源部门 1990 年至 2016 年间的能源消耗和温室气体排放数据,该部门的排放量约占全国总排放量的 36%。然后,我们利用机器学习技术开发了预测模型,以预测 2030 年之前与能源相关的排放量。在分析和预测的基础上,提出了可实现的数据驱动建议,以指导该国的气候政策。我们发现,1990 年至 2016 年间,石油燃料消耗量增加了约 64.5%,相应的温室气体排放量增加了 303%。预测表明,到 2030 年,能源行业的排放量将比 2016 年增加 131%。预计到 2030 年,交通部门的排放量也将增加 219%,燃料消耗量将达到 6742 千吨当量,比 2016 年的基准增加约 106%。这项工作的研究结果将指导该国有效减缓温室气体排放的政策,同时确保有效利用气候资源,以实现净零排放目标。© 2023 化学工业协会和 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 保留所有权利。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Predictive modeling of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in Ghana towards a net-zero future

Ghana is determined to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 15% by 2030 and attain net-zero emissions by 2070. However, like many developing countries, Ghana must utilize its limited resources effectively to actualize its climate goals. Currently, climate policies in the country are not driven by emission data, which has important implications on effective utilization of resources and selection of efficient mitigation techniques. We analyzed energy consumption and GHG emission data between 1990 and 2016 from Ghana's energy sector which is responsible for about 36% of the country's total emissions. Predictive models were then developed using machine learning to forecast energy related emissions up to 2030. Based on the analysis and projections, attainable data-driven recommendations were proposed to direct climate policies in the country. We found that between 1990 and 2016, petroleum fuel consumption increased by about 64.5% and the corresponding GHG emissions increased by 303%. The projections suggests that by 2030, energy sector emissions could increase by 131% compared to 2016 levels. Transport sector emission is also projected to increase by a whopping 219% and fuel consumption could hit 6742 ktoe by 2030, which is about 106% increase from the 2016 benchmark. The findings from this work will direct policy for effective mitigation of GHG emissions in the country while ensuring effective utilization of climate resources to pursue its net-zero targets. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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来源期刊
Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology
Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology ENERGY & FUELS-ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
4.50%
发文量
55
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology is a new online-only scientific journal dedicated to the management of greenhouse gases. The journal will focus on methods for carbon capture and storage (CCS), as well as utilization of carbon dioxide (CO2) as a feedstock for fuels and chemicals. GHG will also provide insight into strategies to mitigate emissions of other greenhouse gases. Significant advances will be explored in critical reviews, commentary articles and short communications of broad interest. In addition, the journal will offer analyses of relevant economic and political issues, industry developments and case studies. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology is an exciting new online-only journal published as a co-operative venture of the SCI (Society of Chemical Industry) and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
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