萨姆规则和预测经济合作与发展组织国家的大衰退

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

National Institute Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-03-14 DOI:10.1017/nie.2021.47

David G. Blanchflower, Alex Bryson

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们考察了经合组织国家大衰退的开始日期。“萨姆规则”将美国衰退的开始时间确定为2008年初，但在大多数经合组织国家，它将衰退的开始时间确定为连续两个季度GDP下降之后。我们用失业恐惧序列来预测衰退，建立了自己的预测衰退的规则。我们显示，与此前12个月低点相比，该系列指数上升了10个百分点，这预示着美国和欧洲经济大衰退的开始。

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THE SAHM RULE AND PREDICTING THE GREAT RECESSION ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES

We examine the start date of the Great Recession across OECD countries. The Sahm Rule identifies the start of recession in the US to the beginning of 2008 but in most other OECD countries it identifies the start after that identified by two successive falls in quarterly GDP. We establish our own rule for predicting recession using the fear of unemployment series to predict recession. We show a 10-point rise in the series compared to its previous 12 month low predicted the onset of the Great Recession in both the United States and Europe.

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来源期刊

National Institute Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

9.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The National Institute Economic Review is the quarterly publication of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, one of Britain"s oldest and most prestigious independent research organisations. The Institutes objective is to promote, through quantitative research, a deeper understanding of the interaction of economic and social forces that affect peoples" lives so that they may be improved. It has no political affiliation, and receives no core funding from government. Its research programme is organised under the headings of Economic Modelling and Analysis; Productivity; Education and Training and the International Economy.