Sahara's surface transformation forced an abrupt hydroclimate decline and Neolithic culture transition in northern China

The remote forcing from land surface changes in the Sahara is hypothesized to play a pivotal role in modulating the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) through ocean-atmospheric teleconnections. This modulation has far-reaching consequences, particularly in facilitating societal shifts documented in northern China. Here, we present a well-dated lake-level record from the Daihai Lake basin in northern China, providing quantitative assessments of Holocene monsoonal precipitation and the consequent migrations of the northern boundary of the EASM. Our reconstruction, informed by a water and energy balance model, indicates that annual precipitation reached ∼700 mm during 8-5 ka, followed by a rapid decline to ∼550 mm between 5-4 ka. This shift coherently aligns with a significant ∼300 km northwestward movement of the EASM northern boundary during the middle Holocene (MH), in contrast to its current position. Our findings underscore that these changes cannot be entirely attributed to orbital forcing, as corroborated by simulation tests. Climate model simulations deployed in our study suggest that the presence of the Green Sahara during the MH significantly strengthened the EASM and led to a northward shift of the monsoon rainfall belt. Conversely, the Sahara’s reversion to a desert landscape in the late Holocene was accompanied by a corresponding southward retraction of monsoon influence. These dramatic hydroclimate changes around 5-4 ka likely triggered or at least contributed to a shift in Neolithic cultures and societal transformation in northern China. With decreasing agricultural productivity, communities transitioned from millet farming to a mixed rain-fed agriculture and animal husbandry system. Thus, our findings elucidate not only the variability of the EASM but also the profound implications of a remote forcing, such as surface transformations of the Sahara, on climatic changes and cultural evolution in northern China.