Wenrong Bai, Hailong Liu, Pengfei Lin, Xichen Li, Fan Wang
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Reconciling opposite trends in the observed and simulated equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient
The reasons for large discrepancies between observations and simulations, as well as for uncertainties in projections of the equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, are controversial. We used CMIP6 models and large ensemble simulations to show that model bias and internal variabilities affected, i.e., strengthened, the SST gradient between 1981 and 2010. The underestimation of strengthened trends in the southeast trade wind belt, the insufficient cooling effect of eastern Pacific upwelling, and the excessive westward extension of the climatological cold tongue in models jointly caused a weaker SST gradient than the recent observations. The phase transformation of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) could explain ~ 51% of the observed SST gradient strengthening. After adjusting the random IPO phase to the observed IPO change, the adjusted SST gradient trends were closer to observations. We further constrained the projection of SST gradient change by using climate models’ ability to reproduce the historical SST gradient intensification or the phase of the IPO. These models suggest a weakened SST gradient in the middle of the twenty-first century.
Geoscience LettersEarth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
2.50%
发文量
42
审稿时长
25 weeks
期刊介绍:
Geoscience Letters is the official journal of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, and a fully open access journal published under the SpringerOpen brand. The journal publishes original, innovative and timely research letter articles and concise reviews on studies of the Earth and its environment, the planetary and space sciences. Contributions reflect the eight scientific sections of the AOGS: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeosciences, Hydrological Sciences, Interdisciplinary Geosciences, Ocean Sciences, Planetary Sciences, Solar and Terrestrial Sciences, and Solid Earth Sciences. Geoscience Letters focuses on cutting-edge fundamental and applied research in the broad field of the geosciences, including the applications of geoscience research to societal problems. This journal is Open Access, providing rapid electronic publication of high-quality, peer-reviewed scientific contributions.