Effects of the illicit market on the price elasticity of cigarette consumption in Brazil.

Background: An important element to consider in tobacco tax policy is the illicit market of cigarette sales. The objective of this paper is to provide estimates of both conditional and unconditional price elasticities of cigarette consumption in the licit and illicit markets in Brazil.

Methodology: Microdata from the National Health Survey in 2013 and 2019 are used to estimate conditional and unconditional price elasticities of cigarette consumption in the licit and illicit cigarette markets by income quartiles and age cohorts. The identification is based on brand information and the official minimum cigarette price defined by the government, as sales below this price are prohibited and illegal.

Findings: The results, robust to potential endogeneity, indicate that there is joint statistical difference in price elasticities across age cohorts and income groups by market type. However, individuals smoking illicit cigarettes, regardless of age cohort and income quartiles, are less sensitive to price changes than those consuming licit brands.

Conclusions: The illicit cigarette market prevents the government from collecting tobacco tax revenues and weakens the social reach of price-oriented antismoking public policies. Fighting the illicit trade should be a major concern of public policies aiming at reducing cigarette consumption.