Sub-regional variability of residential electricity consumption under climate change and air-conditioning scenarios in France

The residential sector is important for the energy transition to combat global warming. Due to the geographical variability of socio-economic factors, the highly dependent residential electricity consumption (REC) should be studied locally. This study aims to project future French REC considering climate change and air-conditioning (AC) scenarios and to quantify its spatial variability. For this purpose, a linear temperature sensitivity model fitted by annual observed electricity consumption data and historical temperature is applied at an intra-regional scale. Future temperature-sensitive REC is computed by applying the model to temperature projections under the climate change pathway RCP8.5. Three AC scenarios are considered: (1) A 100% AC rate scenario assuming that any region partially equipped with AC systems nowadays will have all its households equipped with AC, but local temperature sensitivity will no longer progress; (2) A gradual spreading scenario mimicking “do like my neighbor” behavior; (3) A combination of the two scenarios. Increasing temperatures lead to an overall REC decrease (−8 TWh by 2040 and down to −20 TWh by 2100) with significant spatial variability, which had never been quantified and mapped due to a lack of suited methodology and limited available data at the finest scale. The evolution of REC is modulated by the evolution of cooling needs and the deployment of AC systems to meet those needs. In the first 2 AC scenarios, the decrease of REC due to climate change could be totally offset in the South of France, which would then display an increase in REC. When the 2 AC scenarios are combined, an increase in REC could be seen over the whole country. The most extreme AC scenario shows a potential REC rise due to AC usage by 2% by 2040 and even 32% by 2100, which could be canceled by increasing the cooling setpoint up to 26–27 °C.