在低收入和中等收入国家COVID-19早期疫苗获取有限的情况下,对疫苗接种策略进行建模:以泰国为例研究

IF 8.8 3区 医学 Q1 Medicine
Suparinthon Anupong , Tanakorn Chantanasaro , Chaiwat Wilasang , Natcha C. Jitsuk , Chayanin Sararat , Kan Sornbundit , Busara Pattanasiri , Dhammika Leshan Wannigama , Mohan Amarasiri , Sudarat Chadsuthi , Charin Modchang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在大流行的早期阶段,低收入和中等收入国家在获得COVID-19疫苗方面面临重大挑战。在本研究中,我们利用年龄结构建模方法来检查泰国(一个在大流行早期阶段经历疫苗短缺的中高收入国家)各种疫苗接种策略、疫苗优先级和疫苗推广速度的影响。在不同的疾病传播动态下,该模型直接比较了几种疫苗接种策略的有效性,包括将冠状病毒(CV)疫苗作为第一剂,然后将ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZ)疫苗作为第二剂的异源疫苗接种策略。我们发现,无论疾病传播动态如何,传统的AZ同源疫苗接种比CV同源疫苗接种更有效。然而,通过平行同源或异源疫苗联合接种CV和AZ疫苗比单独依赖AZ同源疫苗更有效。此外,在社区传播得到良好控制的情况下,优先为60岁及以上老年人接种疫苗是降低死亡率的最有效方法。另一方面,无论传播动态如何,优先考虑20-59岁的工人在减少新冠肺炎病例方面最有效。最后,尽管采取了疫苗优先战略,但快速推出疫苗对于减少COVID-19感染和死亡至关重要。这些研究结果表明,在早期获得高效疫苗可能有限的低收入和中等收入国家,尽早获得任何可获得的疫苗,并与其他高效疫苗同时使用,可能是比等待和完全依赖高效疫苗更好的策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling vaccination strategies with limited early COVID-19 vaccine access in low- and middle-income countries: A case study of Thailand

Low- and middle-income countries faced significant challenges in accessing COVID-19 vaccines during the early stages of the pandemic. In this study, we utilized an age-structured modeling approach to examine the implications of various vaccination strategies, vaccine prioritization, and vaccine rollout speeds in Thailand, an upper-middle-income country experiencing vaccine shortages during the early stages of the pandemic. The model directly compares the effectiveness of several vaccination strategies, including the heterologous vaccination where CoronaVac (CV) vaccine was administered as the first dose, followed by ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZ) vaccine as the second dose, under varying disease transmission dynamics. We found that the traditional AZ homologous vaccination was more effective than the CV homologous vaccination, regardless of disease transmission dynamics. However, combining CV and AZ vaccines via either parallel homologous or heterologous vaccinations was more effective than relying solely on AZ homologous vaccination. Additionally, prioritizing vaccination for the elderly aged 60 years and above was the most effective way to reduce mortality when community transmission is well-controlled. On the other hand, prioritizing workers aged 20–59 was most effective in lowering COVID-19 cases, irrespective of the transmission dynamics. Lastly, despite the vaccine prioritization strategy, rapid vaccine rollout speeds were crucial in reducing COVID-19 infections and deaths. These findings suggested that in low- and middle-income countries where early access to high-efficacy vaccines might be limited, obtaining any accessible vaccines as early as possible and using them in parallel with other higher-efficacy vaccines might be a better strategy than waiting for and relying solely on higher-efficacy vaccines.

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来源期刊
Infectious Disease Modelling
Infectious Disease Modelling Mathematics-Applied Mathematics
CiteScore
17.00
自引率
3.40%
发文量
73
审稿时长
17 weeks
期刊介绍: Infectious Disease Modelling is an open access journal that undergoes peer-review. Its main objective is to facilitate research that combines mathematical modelling, retrieval and analysis of infection disease data, and public health decision support. The journal actively encourages original research that improves this interface, as well as review articles that highlight innovative methodologies relevant to data collection, informatics, and policy making in the field of public health.
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