基于模糊综合评价的港口油罐区溢油风险研究

Ying Li, Wei Wang, BingXin Liu, Xin Zhou
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引用次数: 19

摘要

为了尽早发现油罐区溢油事故,弥补不足,采用模糊综合评价法构建了油罐区溢油风险模糊综合评价模型。首先,对中国石油天然气集团公司的溢油事故历史数据进行收集和分析,并对现场工作人员和管理人员进行问卷调查,选择并确定评价因素。其次,采用层次分析法结合专家打分法确定各因素的权重;最后,根据隶属函数对模糊因素进行量化,确定风险因素矩阵。以中石油港口溢油风险为例进行研究,结果为V= 3.85,表明油罐区状态大致良好。所得结果和结论与实际情况相符。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on Oil Spill Risk of Port Tank Zone Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

For the purpose of early discovering of tank zone oil spill accidents and making up the shortfall, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to construct the oil spill risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Firstly, the historical data of oil spill accidents in China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) was collected and analyzed, and the questionnaire was conducted to the field staff and managers to select and confirm the evaluation factors. Secondly, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) combined with experts scoring method was used to set the weight of each factor. Lastly, the fuzzy factors were quantified based on the membership function to determine the risk factors matrix. The oil spill risk of CNPC port was researched as a case study, the result of which is V= 3.85, indicating that the state of the tank zone is approximately well. The result and conclusion consist with the actual conditions.

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