{"title":"利用香港天文台的大面积WRF模式预测热带气旋路径","authors":"Kai-Kwong Hon","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.002","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Tropical cyclone (TC) track predictions of the 10-km resolution WRF (provisionally named \"AAMC-WRF\") of the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), spanning (20⁰S - 60⁰N, 45⁰E − 160⁰E) is studied for a 1-year period from April 2018 to Mar 2019. Real-time predictions, up to 4 times a day and T+48 h ahead, are verified against operational analysis positions of HKO for storms over the South China Sea (SCS) and Western North Pacific (WNP); and of the New Delhi Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for storms over the North Indian Ocean basin (NIO; including the Bay of Bengal). Out of 21 named TCs over SCS and WNP, mean positional errors of the AAMC-WRF are 33 km (T+0), 63 km (T+24), and 107 km (T+48) based on 209, 178 and 142 forecasts. The AAMC-WRF outperformed Meso-NHM, also run in real-time at HKO, with mean error reduction up to 34 km or 24%. Mean positional errors for 13 NIO storms are 38 km (T+0), 69 km (T+24) and 107 km (T+48) based on 183, 131 and 85 forecasts. This is the first study in which TC predictions of a regional model are simultaneously examined over the SCS, WNP and NIO basins through real-time experiments.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"9 1","pages":"Pages 67-74"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.002","citationCount":"15","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Tropical cyclone track prediction using a large-area WRF model at the Hong Kong Observatory\",\"authors\":\"Kai-Kwong Hon\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.002\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Tropical cyclone (TC) track predictions of the 10-km resolution WRF (provisionally named \\\"AAMC-WRF\\\") of the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), spanning (20⁰S - 60⁰N, 45⁰E − 160⁰E) is studied for a 1-year period from April 2018 to Mar 2019. Real-time predictions, up to 4 times a day and T+48 h ahead, are verified against operational analysis positions of HKO for storms over the South China Sea (SCS) and Western North Pacific (WNP); and of the New Delhi Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for storms over the North Indian Ocean basin (NIO; including the Bay of Bengal). Out of 21 named TCs over SCS and WNP, mean positional errors of the AAMC-WRF are 33 km (T+0), 63 km (T+24), and 107 km (T+48) based on 209, 178 and 142 forecasts. The AAMC-WRF outperformed Meso-NHM, also run in real-time at HKO, with mean error reduction up to 34 km or 24%. Mean positional errors for 13 NIO storms are 38 km (T+0), 69 km (T+24) and 107 km (T+48) based on 183, 131 and 85 forecasts. This is the first study in which TC predictions of a regional model are simultaneously examined over the SCS, WNP and NIO basins through real-time experiments.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":44442,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review\",\"volume\":\"9 1\",\"pages\":\"Pages 67-74\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-03-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.002\",\"citationCount\":\"15\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603220300126\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603220300126","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
摘要
研究了香港天文台(HKO) 10公里分辨率WRF(暂时命名为“AAMC-WRF”)的热带气旋(TC)路径预测,跨度为(20⁰S - 60⁰N, 45⁰E - 160⁰E),为期1年,从2018年4月到2019年3月。根据香港天文台对南海及西北太平洋风暴的业务分析位置,验证每日最多4次及提前T+48小时的实时预报;以及新德里区域专业气象中心(RSMC)关于北印度洋盆地(NIO)风暴的预报;包括孟加拉湾)。在SCS和WNP上的21个命名tc中,AAMC-WRF基于209、178和142次预报的平均位置误差分别为33 km (T+0)、63 km (T+24)和107 km (T+48)。AAMC-WRF优于同样在香港天文台实时运行的Meso-NHM,平均误差减少了34公里或24%。基于183、131和85次预报,13次NIO风暴的平均定位误差分别为38 km (T+0)、69 km (T+24)和107 km (T+48)。这是第一次通过实时实验同时对区域模式的TC预测在SCS、WNP和NIO盆地进行检验的研究。
Tropical cyclone track prediction using a large-area WRF model at the Hong Kong Observatory
Tropical cyclone (TC) track predictions of the 10-km resolution WRF (provisionally named "AAMC-WRF") of the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), spanning (20⁰S - 60⁰N, 45⁰E − 160⁰E) is studied for a 1-year period from April 2018 to Mar 2019. Real-time predictions, up to 4 times a day and T+48 h ahead, are verified against operational analysis positions of HKO for storms over the South China Sea (SCS) and Western North Pacific (WNP); and of the New Delhi Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for storms over the North Indian Ocean basin (NIO; including the Bay of Bengal). Out of 21 named TCs over SCS and WNP, mean positional errors of the AAMC-WRF are 33 km (T+0), 63 km (T+24), and 107 km (T+48) based on 209, 178 and 142 forecasts. The AAMC-WRF outperformed Meso-NHM, also run in real-time at HKO, with mean error reduction up to 34 km or 24%. Mean positional errors for 13 NIO storms are 38 km (T+0), 69 km (T+24) and 107 km (T+48) based on 183, 131 and 85 forecasts. This is the first study in which TC predictions of a regional model are simultaneously examined over the SCS, WNP and NIO basins through real-time experiments.
期刊介绍:
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review is an international journal focusing on tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting, and research as well as associated hydrological effects and disaster risk reduction. This journal is edited and published by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorology Administration (STI/CMA). Contributions from all tropical cyclone basins are welcome.
Scope of the journal includes:
• Reviews of tropical cyclones exhibiting unusual characteristics or behavior or resulting in disastrous impacts on Typhoon Committee Members and other regional WMO bodies
• Advances in applied and basic tropical cyclone research or technology to improve tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings
• Basic theoretical studies of tropical cyclones
• Event reports, compelling images, and topic review reports of tropical cyclones
• Impacts, risk assessments, and risk management techniques related to tropical cyclones