推断工作区域对崩溃的因果影响:方法和案例研究

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Zhuoran Zhang , Burcu Akinci , Sean Qian
{"title":"推断工作区域对崩溃的因果影响:方法和案例研究","authors":"Zhuoran Zhang ,&nbsp;Burcu Akinci ,&nbsp;Sean Qian","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2021.100203","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The increasing number of crashes occurring in work zones has received considerable attention in recent years. Previous studies have mainly focused on associations between work zone configurations and crash occurrence. Although identification of associational relations helps us understand how work zones co-exist with crashes, it does not provide interventional guidelines necessary to improve safety of work zone operations. In this paper, a causal inference model based on the potential outcome framework is proposed to rigorously infer the causal effects of work zone presence on crash risks under various work zone configurations, along with robustness tests. In developing such a causal model, three research gaps are identified and addressed: (1) potential confounding bias due to unobservable roadway characteristics; (2) potential bias caused by unobserved variables in multisource data; and (3) lack of actually observed traffic data and weather information at the exact time when a crash occurred and lack of large-scale high-granular data. The proposed methodology is applied to 5,006 work zones in Pennsylvania from 2015 to 2017, and the results are validated via a series of robustness tests. The results show that the causal effect of a work zone on crash occurrence is significantly positive, especially on roadways with high traffic volumes, on long-distance work zones, and work zones conducted during daytime. It appears that conducting work zones during nighttime with the current deployment strategies on Pennsylvania state roads does not necessarily increase crash risks, but a work zone significantly increases crash risks during day time.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665721000476/pdfft?md5=a51708c73ae15bdb419a9fe0ea93cf6e&pid=1-s2.0-S2213665721000476-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Inferring the causal effect of work zones on crashes: Methodology and a case study\",\"authors\":\"Zhuoran Zhang ,&nbsp;Burcu Akinci ,&nbsp;Sean Qian\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.amar.2021.100203\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The increasing number of crashes occurring in work zones has received considerable attention in recent years. Previous studies have mainly focused on associations between work zone configurations and crash occurrence. Although identification of associational relations helps us understand how work zones co-exist with crashes, it does not provide interventional guidelines necessary to improve safety of work zone operations. In this paper, a causal inference model based on the potential outcome framework is proposed to rigorously infer the causal effects of work zone presence on crash risks under various work zone configurations, along with robustness tests. In developing such a causal model, three research gaps are identified and addressed: (1) potential confounding bias due to unobservable roadway characteristics; (2) potential bias caused by unobserved variables in multisource data; and (3) lack of actually observed traffic data and weather information at the exact time when a crash occurred and lack of large-scale high-granular data. The proposed methodology is applied to 5,006 work zones in Pennsylvania from 2015 to 2017, and the results are validated via a series of robustness tests. The results show that the causal effect of a work zone on crash occurrence is significantly positive, especially on roadways with high traffic volumes, on long-distance work zones, and work zones conducted during daytime. It appears that conducting work zones during nighttime with the current deployment strategies on Pennsylvania state roads does not necessarily increase crash risks, but a work zone significantly increases crash risks during day time.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47520,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Analytic Methods in Accident Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":12.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-03-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665721000476/pdfft?md5=a51708c73ae15bdb419a9fe0ea93cf6e&pid=1-s2.0-S2213665721000476-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Analytic Methods in Accident Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665721000476\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665721000476","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来,越来越多的事故发生在工作区域,引起了相当大的关注。以前的研究主要集中在工作区域配置和崩溃发生之间的联系上。尽管对关联关系的识别有助于我们理解工作区域是如何与事故共存的,但它并没有提供必要的干预指导,以提高工作区域操作的安全性。本文提出了基于潜在结果框架的因果推理模型,严格推导了不同工作区域配置下工作区域存在对碰撞风险的因果效应,并进行了鲁棒性检验。在建立这样的因果模型时,发现并解决了三个研究空白:(1)由于不可观察的道路特征而产生的潜在混杂偏差;(2)多源数据中未观测变量造成的潜在偏差;(3)缺乏事故发生时的实际观测交通数据和天气信息,缺乏大规模的高粒度数据。将该方法应用于2015年至2017年宾夕法尼亚州的5006个工作区域,并通过一系列稳健性测试对结果进行了验证。结果表明:工作区域对交通事故发生的因果效应显著为正,特别是在交通流量大的道路、远距离工作区域和白天工作区域。按照目前的部署策略,夜间在宾夕法尼亚州的国道上设置工作区并不一定会增加事故风险,但在白天设置工作区会显著增加事故风险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Inferring the causal effect of work zones on crashes: Methodology and a case study

The increasing number of crashes occurring in work zones has received considerable attention in recent years. Previous studies have mainly focused on associations between work zone configurations and crash occurrence. Although identification of associational relations helps us understand how work zones co-exist with crashes, it does not provide interventional guidelines necessary to improve safety of work zone operations. In this paper, a causal inference model based on the potential outcome framework is proposed to rigorously infer the causal effects of work zone presence on crash risks under various work zone configurations, along with robustness tests. In developing such a causal model, three research gaps are identified and addressed: (1) potential confounding bias due to unobservable roadway characteristics; (2) potential bias caused by unobserved variables in multisource data; and (3) lack of actually observed traffic data and weather information at the exact time when a crash occurred and lack of large-scale high-granular data. The proposed methodology is applied to 5,006 work zones in Pennsylvania from 2015 to 2017, and the results are validated via a series of robustness tests. The results show that the causal effect of a work zone on crash occurrence is significantly positive, especially on roadways with high traffic volumes, on long-distance work zones, and work zones conducted during daytime. It appears that conducting work zones during nighttime with the current deployment strategies on Pennsylvania state roads does not necessarily increase crash risks, but a work zone significantly increases crash risks during day time.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信