{"title":"生态学和进化中的预测","authors":"Andrew P Hendry","doi":"10.1093/biosci/biad083","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Prediction is frequently asserted to be the sine qua non of science, but prediction means different things to different people in different contexts. I organize and explain this diversity by addressing five questions. What does it mean to predict something? To answer this question, I describe concepts of prediction as prophecy, diagnosis, history, repeatability, and fate. What are we trying to predict? Here, I describe how predictions vary along several axes: general to specific, qualitative to quantitative, relative to absolute, point to range, and continuous to discontinuous. Where do predictions come from? In this case, I focus on deductive versus inductive reasoning. How do we test predictions? The answer here is not straightforward and I discuss various approaches and difficulties. How good are predictions? Not surprisingly, it depends on what is being predicted and how we judge success. Importantly, I do not espouse a “best” way to approach prediction but, rather, I outline its diverse manifestations so as to help organize practical thinking on the topic.","PeriodicalId":9003,"journal":{"name":"BioScience","volume":"14 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":7.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Prediction in ecology and evolution\",\"authors\":\"Andrew P Hendry\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/biosci/biad083\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract Prediction is frequently asserted to be the sine qua non of science, but prediction means different things to different people in different contexts. I organize and explain this diversity by addressing five questions. What does it mean to predict something? To answer this question, I describe concepts of prediction as prophecy, diagnosis, history, repeatability, and fate. What are we trying to predict? Here, I describe how predictions vary along several axes: general to specific, qualitative to quantitative, relative to absolute, point to range, and continuous to discontinuous. Where do predictions come from? In this case, I focus on deductive versus inductive reasoning. How do we test predictions? The answer here is not straightforward and I discuss various approaches and difficulties. How good are predictions? Not surprisingly, it depends on what is being predicted and how we judge success. Importantly, I do not espouse a “best” way to approach prediction but, rather, I outline its diverse manifestations so as to help organize practical thinking on the topic.\",\"PeriodicalId\":9003,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"BioScience\",\"volume\":\"14 5\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-10-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"BioScience\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biad083\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"生物学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BIOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"BioScience","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biad083","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Prediction is frequently asserted to be the sine qua non of science, but prediction means different things to different people in different contexts. I organize and explain this diversity by addressing five questions. What does it mean to predict something? To answer this question, I describe concepts of prediction as prophecy, diagnosis, history, repeatability, and fate. What are we trying to predict? Here, I describe how predictions vary along several axes: general to specific, qualitative to quantitative, relative to absolute, point to range, and continuous to discontinuous. Where do predictions come from? In this case, I focus on deductive versus inductive reasoning. How do we test predictions? The answer here is not straightforward and I discuss various approaches and difficulties. How good are predictions? Not surprisingly, it depends on what is being predicted and how we judge success. Importantly, I do not espouse a “best” way to approach prediction but, rather, I outline its diverse manifestations so as to help organize practical thinking on the topic.
期刊介绍:
BioScience is a monthly journal that has been in publication since 1964. It provides readers with authoritative and current overviews of biological research. The journal is peer-reviewed and heavily cited, making it a reliable source for researchers, educators, and students. In addition to research articles, BioScience also covers topics such as biology education, public policy, history, and the fundamental principles of the biological sciences. This makes the content accessible to a wide range of readers. The journal includes professionally written feature articles that explore the latest advancements in biology. It also features discussions on professional issues, book reviews, news about the American Institute of Biological Sciences (AIBS), and columns on policy (Washington Watch) and education (Eye on Education).