全球气候模式对水资源的可预测性。突尼斯北部个案

IF 2 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Comptes Rendus Geoscience Pub Date : 2023-06-12 DOI:10.5802/crgeos.219

Mustapha Besbes, Jamel Chahed

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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项研究的目的是通过分析气候变化对突尼斯北部蓝水和绿水的长期影响，直接利用gcm探索水资源的可预测性。水文影响依赖于在ssp2-45情景框架内使用CMIP6 GCMs输出的降雨-径流集总模型。在30个CMIP6模型中，复合模型cnrm-esm2-1和fgoals-g3对1995 - 2014年观测径流量的恢复效果最好，GCM值最高。2015-2100年的水文预测显示，降雨量(9%)、径流(21%)、地下水补给(15%)和绿水(6%)显著下降。结果表明，在大流域使用原始GCMs预测是可能的，其精度与在中型流域使用区域气候模式所产生的精度相当。

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Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia

The objective of the research is to explore the predictability of water resources directly with GCMs by analysing long-term effects of climate change on Northern Tunisia’s blue and green water. Hydrologic impacts rely on a rainfall-runoff lumped model using outputs of CMIP6 GCMs within the framework of the ssp2-45 scenario. Among the 30 CMIP6 models, the composite cnrm-esm2-1 and fgoals-g3 best restore observed runoff from 1995 to 2014 and give the best GCM. Hydrologic projections 2015–2100 show significant drops in rainfall (9%), runoff (21%), groundwater recharge (15%), as well as for green water (6%). The results show that the use of raw GCMs predictions on large basins is possible and provides precisions comparable to what is produced when using Regional Climate Models in medium size basins.

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来源期刊

Comptes Rendus Geoscience 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

14.30%

发文量

审稿时长

5.9 weeks

期刊介绍： Created in 1835 by physicist François Arago, then Permanent Secretary, the journal Comptes Rendus de l''Académie des sciences allows researchers to quickly make their work known to the international scientific community. It is divided into seven titles covering the range of scientific research fields: Mathematics, Mechanics, Chemistry, Biology, Geoscience, Physics and Palevol. Each series is led by an editor-in-chief assisted by an editorial committee. Submitted articles are reviewed by two scientists with recognized competence in the field concerned. They can be notes, announcing significant new results, as well as review articles, allowing for a fine-tuning, or even proceedings of symposia and other thematic issues, under the direction of invited editors, French or foreign.