俄罗斯人口用电量指标的区域差异因素分析

Elena Ryumina
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本文中,人们对节能的态度被认为是人类潜能的特征之一。各国和俄罗斯各地区的人口用电量指标存在很大差异,分析了影响已确定差异的若干因素。假设确定了以下七个因素:气候;人口人均收入;贫困率;受过高等教育的人口比例;城乡人口比例;人口年龄结构;房屋存量的气化程度。用于分析的信息不仅来自联邦统计收集,而且来自每个地区,这使得数据收集非常困难。确定了人口人均用电量与这些因素之间的相关性。研究表明,人们更倾向于节省电费而不是电能本身,即人口电价在促进节能方面起着决定性作用。人均电力成本与人均收入呈正相关,与贫困率呈负相关。农村人口的人均用电量比城市人口少。人口年龄结构对人均能耗的影响发现:健全人口比例越高,用电量越低,反之,老年人口比例越大的地区,用电量越高。由于不同地区的气化程度不同,因此分别研究了由房屋存量气化程度大致相同的地区形成的样品。该样本的相关分析结果与所有85个地区的结果相差不大。唯一的例外是用电量与高等教育水平之间的关系——在样本中,这些指标之间的负相关关系更为密切。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis of the regional differentiation factors of indicators of electricity consumption by the population of Russia
In the article, the attitude of the population to energy conservation is considered as one of the characteristics of human potential. A strong differentiation of the indicator of electricity consumption by the population by countries and Russian regions is shown, a number of factors influencing the identified differences are analyzed. Hypothetically, the following seven factors are identified: climate; average per capita income of the population; rate of poverty; proportion of people with higher education; ratio of urban and rural population; age structure of the population; level of gasification of the housing stock. The information for analysis was taken not only from the federal statistical collections, but also for each region, that made data collecting very difficult. Correlations between the per capita electricity consumption by the population and these factors are determined. It is shown that people are more inclined to save their electricity costs than the electric energy itself, i.e. electricity tariffs for the population play a decisive role in stimulating energy saving. Per capita electricity costs have a positive relationship with average per capita income and a negative relationship with poverty rate. The rural population consumes less electricity per capita than the urban population. The impact of the population age structure on per capita energy consumption was found: the higher the proportion of the able-bodied population, the lower the electricity consumption, and vice versa, energy consumption is higher in regions with a larger proportion of the older generation. Due to the different levels of gasification by regions, the sample, formed from the regions with approximately the same level of gasification of the housing stock, was separately studied. The results of the correlation analysis of this sample turned out to differ little from the results obtained for all 85 regions. The exception was the relationship between the volume of electricity consumption and the level of higher education — in the sample there was a much closer negative relationship between these indicators.
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