缺失的环节是:预算责任办公室的潜在产出建模

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

National Institute Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-08-29 DOI:10.1017/nie.2023.13

Jagjit S. Chadha

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我概述了财政政策宏观经济分析中缺失的一环。虽然预算责任办公室(OBR)的职权范围确实允许它判断财政(或其他经济政策)对潜在产出的影响是否重大，但在它被要求评估政府是否会遵守其财政规则的期限内，这种判断几乎无关紧要。例如，即使公共投资出现实质性的永久性增长，如2020年3月预算中承诺从占GDP的2%提高到占GDP的3%，也需要相当长的时间才能累积对公共资本存量和潜在产出产生足够的影响，从而对财政分母产生重大影响。但它肯定会。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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THE MISSING LINK: MODELLING POTENTIAL OUTPUT AT THE OFFICE FOR BUDGET RESPONSIBILITY

I outline the missing link in macroeconomic analysis of fiscal policy. While the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) remit does allow it to judge whether the effects of fiscal (or other economic policies) on potential output are material, such judgements will matter little for the horizon over which it is being asked to assess whether the government will meet its fiscal rules. Even if there is a material permanent increase in public investment, for example, as in the 2020 March Budget with a commitment to step from 2% of GDP to 3% of GDP, it takes a quite some time before it cumulates to a sufficient impact on the stock of public capital and on potential output to make a significant difference to the fiscal denominator. But it surely will.

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来源期刊

National Institute Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

9.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The National Institute Economic Review is the quarterly publication of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, one of Britain"s oldest and most prestigious independent research organisations. The Institutes objective is to promote, through quantitative research, a deeper understanding of the interaction of economic and social forces that affect peoples" lives so that they may be improved. It has no political affiliation, and receives no core funding from government. Its research programme is organised under the headings of Economic Modelling and Analysis; Productivity; Education and Training and the International Economy.