Why Not Mahan? Path Dependence in Modern Japanese Geostrategic Thinking of the Pacific

Abstract It is well known that during the 1930s and the 1940s intellectuals in Japan, an island state, devoured geopolitical theories constructed in a typical ‘land power’, Germany. Not only did this fad contradict the geographical reality of Japanese territory. It was also at odds with Japan’s contemporary national identity as a maritime state. This article highlights intellectual path dependence as the key to explaining this conundrum. The initial decision that paved the way for the adoption of the German tradition of geopolitics was made shortly before the outbreak of the Russo-Japanese War by political scientist Onozuka Kiheiji, who consciously opted for the geographical ideas of Friedrich Ratzel instead of the naval strategy of Alfred Thayer Mahan as a theoretical guide and justification for empire-building. This article illustrates how the choice made by Onozuka induced his students, who became leading intellectual figures after World War I, to follow the evolution of German geopolitics and to propagate the ideas of Karl Haushofer at the beginning of the Pacific War. The article ends by briefly describing how the Geopolitik tradition was overcome by the formation of a new maritime national identity after the war.