The impact of conflict on food security: evidence from household data in Ethiopia and Malawi

Abstract Background Violent conflicts threaten food security and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa. While a more robust understanding of the causal relationship between food security and conflict is vital in mitigating food insecurity and bolstering peace prospects, only limited research exists on this topic, especially at the household level where estimations are more empirically challenging given data constraints and identification issues. Our analysis utilizes a newly developed and novel difference-in-differences model developed by de Chaisemartin and D’Haultfoeuille (2020) to determine the causal relationship between violent conflicts and food security in two sub-Saharan African countries—Malawi and Ethiopia using household-level data from the World Bank’s Household Living Standards Measurement Survey. Results Our results suggest that exposure to violent conflict on average decreases the food consumption score (FCS) by 6.84 units, which corresponds to a 16.13% reduction in FCS. With respect to individual countries, Malawi shows the largest effect-size, with the FCS decreasing by 10.54 units (equivalent to a 20.22% reduction in FCS). In Ethiopia, the causal estimate was slightly smaller at − 4.32 (equivalent to a 11.67% reduction in FCS) although the baseline food security status was lower relative to Malawi. Disaggregated analyses show that the effect-size can be several orders of magnitude larger when conflict is experienced simultaneously with natural shocks. Robustness checks using different iterations of propensity score matching generate comparable causal estimates and reinforce the overall findings. Conclusions The findings help improve our understanding of a broader issue by providing new direct and granular evidence regarding the relationship between conflict and food security using household data. The results hold implications for aid and humanitarian efforts to help households facing food insecurity stemming from violence and other factors.