尼日利亚货币政策与经济增长:来自尼日利亚的时间序列证据(1981-2022)

F Osunkwo, Kalu Uke, Pamela Omoruyi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

该研究审查了货币政策对尼日利亚经济增长的影响;从1981年到2022年。该研究使用国内生产总值(gdp)作为经济增长的代表,并将其作为因变量;而分别以货币政策利率、现金准备金率、国库券和流动性利率作为衡量货币政策的解释变量。提出的假设采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)界协整检验ECM进行检验。研究发现,尼日利亚的现金准备金率(CRR)和国库券利率(TBR)对国内生产总值(gdp)呈显著正相关。货币政策利率(Monetary Policy Rate, MPR)对尼日利亚的经济增长具有负的、统计上显著的影响。而流动性比率对尼日利亚国内生产总值的影响为负且不显著。ECM结果表明,误差修正项为负且具有统计显著性,这证实并显示了模型中对短期均衡的一定回归的证据。因此,研究建议货币当局应优先关注CRR和TBR货币政策工具,因为它们将在经济稳定方面产生更理想的结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
MONETARY POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA: TIME-SERIES EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA (1981-2022)
The study examined the impact of monetary policy on the economic growth of Nigeria; for the period 1981-2022. The study used Gross Domestic Product as a proxy for economic growth and employed it as the dependent variable; whereas, monetary policy rate, Cash Reserve Ratio, Treasury Bills, and liquidity rate respectively were used as the explanatory variables to measure monetary policy. Hypotheses formulated were tested using Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) Bound co-integration test ECM. The study revealed that the Cash reserve ratio (CRR) and Treasury Bill Rate (TBR) were positive and statistically significant on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) has a negative and is statistically significant to economic growth in Nigeria. While the Liquidity ratio had a negative and insignificant impact on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. The ECM result reveals that the error correction term is negative and statistically significant, and this corroborates and shows evidence of a certain return to the short-run equilibrium in the model. Therefore, the study recommends that monetary authorities should give priority attention to CRR and TBR monetary policy tools as they will produce a more desirable result in terms of economic stabilization.
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