关于 COVID-19 的四个典型事实

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

International Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI:10.1111/iere.12660

Andrew G. Atkeson, Karen A. Kopecky, Tao Zha

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们开发了一种贝叶斯方法来估计 COVID-19 的死亡动态，并发现了四个关键发现，暴露了当前结构流行病学模型的局限性。(i) 在全球疫情爆发的最初 30 天内，死亡增长率从高水平迅速下降。(ii) 疫情初期过后，死亡增长率在 0% 上下大幅波动。(iii) 在最初 10 天内，死亡增长率的跨地点标准偏差迅速下降，但之后仍然很高。(iv) 通过流行病学模型，这些见解适用于有效繁殖数量及其跨地点变化。我们的方法适用于研究其他流行病。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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FOUR STYLIZED FACTS ABOUT COVID-19

We develop a Bayesian method for estimating the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths and discover four key findings that expose the limitations of current structural epidemiological models . (i) Death growth rates declined rapidly from high levels during the initial 30 days of the epidemic worldwide. (ii) After this initial period, these rates fluctuated substantially around 0%. (iii) The cross-location standard deviation of death growth rates decreased rapidly in the first 10 days but remained high afterward. (iv) These insights apply to both effective reproduction numbers and their cross-location variability through epidemiological models. Our method is applicable to studying other epidemics.

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来源期刊

International Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The International Economic Review was established in 1960 to provide a forum for modern quantitative economics. From its inception, the journal has tried to stimulate economic research around the world by publishing cutting edge papers in many areas of economics, including econometrics, economic theory, macro, and applied economics.