重新审视菲利普曲线在金砖国家背景下的有效性

Aminu Umaru, Ejila Solomon Oxford Ali, Dogo Bishara Saidu, Yunana Nancy Zigwai
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引用次数: 0

摘要

通货膨胀和失业率的共存,特别是在发展中经济体,已经在研究人员中引起了很多关于菲利普曲线有效性的争论。目前的研究使用来自世界银行数据库(2020年)的数据,检验了菲利普曲线在金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)背景下的有效性,并使用随机效应静态面板回归分析进行了分析。我们发现,失业率和产出对金砖国家的通货膨胀率有显著负向影响,验证了菲利普曲线的正确性。这意味着提高失业率和产出水平可能会降低金砖国家的通货膨胀率。因此,我们建议政策制定者在稳定物价和降低失业率之间做出选择。此外,政府需要通过增加产出来减少通货膨胀,从而为人民创造就业机会。金砖国家应更加注重发展劳动密集型生产技术,降低生产成本,创造就业,降低价格。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Re-visiting the Validity of Phillip’s Curve in the Context of the BRICS Countries
The coexistence of inflation and unemployment rates especially in developing economies has been generating a lot of debate among researchers concerning the validity of Phillip’s curve. The current study examines the validity of Phillip’s curve in the context of the BRICS countries comprises of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa using data from the World Bank database (2020) and analyzed using a random effect static panel regression analysis. We find that the unemployment rate and output negatively and significantly influenced the inflation rate in the BRICS countries, which validates Phillip’s curve. This implies that raising unemployment and output level may likely reduce inflation rate in the BRICS countries. We, therefore, recommend the need for policymakers to choose to either stabilize prices or reduce unemployment. Also, the need for government to reduce inflation by increasing output thereby generating employment for the people. The BRICS countries should focus more on the labor-intensive technique of production to reduce the cost of production, create jobs and reduce prices.
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