青少年犯罪与预期处罚

IF 5.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Journal-Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI:10.1257/pol.20210530

Ashna Arora

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引用次数: 0

摘要

制裁能阻止青少年犯罪吗?研究表明，他们可能不会，因为当个人超过犯罪年龄并开始面临更严厉的制裁时，犯罪行为几乎没有减少。然而，一些犯罪行为模型预测，这些接近阈值的小反应可能掩盖了低于年龄阈值的个体的大行为反应。美国2007-2015年间的政策变化被用来显示与这些预测相一致的证据——青少年犯罪随着成年年龄的增加而增加。这一增长是由较年轻的年龄组推动的，并且远远大于阈值时的不连续估计。(jl d91, j13, k42)

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Juvenile Crime and Anticipated Punishment

Can sanctions deter juvenile crime? Research indicates that they may not, as offending barely decreases when individuals cross the age of criminal majority and begin to face harsher sanctions. Several models of criminal behavior predict, however, that these small reactions close to the threshold may mask larger behavioral responses among individuals below the age threshold. Policy variation between 2007–2015 in the United States is used to show evidence consistent with these predictions—juvenile crime increases when the age of majority is increased. This increase is driven by younger age groups and is considerably larger than discontinuity estimates at the threshold. (JEL D91, J13, K42)

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来源期刊

American Economic Journal-Economic Policy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

1.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： The American Economic Review (AER) is a general-interest economics journal. The journal publishes 12 issues containing articles on a broad range of topics. Established in 1911, the AER is among the nation's oldest and most respected scholarly journals in economics. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy publishes papers covering a range of topics, the common theme being the role of economic policy in economic outcomes. Subject areas include public economics; urban and regional economics; public policy aspects of health, education, welfare and political institutions; law and economics; economic regulation; and environmental and natural resource economics.