Incorporating Rail Potential and Equity Analysis into Market Analyses for Rail Investments: A Case Study of the Link21 Program in Northern California

This paper presents an innovative approach for conducting market analyses for major rail investments. The approach considers which locations have the greatest potential to repay investment support and/or benefit specifically from the investment in the form of potential rail riders and the factors that could influence their decision to travel by rail. It is guided by an overarching commitment to equity with an emphasis on identifying potential benefits to communities that have been marginalized. The approach is applied to a case study of the Link21 program, a transformational investment in the Northern California passenger rail network that is focused on a new transbay passenger rail crossing between San Francisco and Oakland. The analysis found there is significant unmet potential for transbay rail ridership across the Northern California megaregion, with the greatest unmet potential found in and around San Francisco and Oakland, specifically in locations with a poor or no rail service. Although much of the potential for new riders centers around transbay travel, the Link21 program could also benefit non-transbay trips and riders. Ultimately, new transbay rail infrastructure and services will create more opportunities for accessible, direct, faster, or less crowded trips across the megaregion. These findings illustrate the value of the innovative market analysis approach as follows: it serves as an objective foundation for developing investment alternatives; and it influences the findings of the analysis and the development of alternatives by emphasizing the importance of serving communities that have been marginalized.