格兰德河源头复合水文干扰建模

IF 2.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Katie E. Schneider, Ashley Rust, Terri Hogue
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近几十年来,美国西部经历了越来越多、越来越频繁的自然土地植被扰动,这些扰动对水预算分区产生了影响。扰动后的水文响应在溪流出口处通常是多变的,很难通过传统的控制影响前后研究进行检测和量化。本研究使用美国地质调查局月度水平衡模型 (MWBM) 的改进版来模拟和分离几种森林扰动的水文响应,包括 (1) 野火、(2) 森林转换(亚高山森林到中高山森林)和 (3) 比美国科罗拉多州格兰德河源头 (RGH) 目前的气候更炎热、更干燥(这种气候情景是在美国科罗拉多州格兰德河源头 (RGH) 的气候条件下产生的)。这种气候情景来自耦合模式相互比较项目第 3 和第 5 阶段的气候情景组合,是根据科罗拉多州的潜在水压力选择的)。我们利用 RGH 中受干扰后的历史植被数据,为 MWBM 添加了定量植被表征,然后将合成的未来(2021-2050 年)溪流情景模拟为单一干扰和复合干扰。与基线情景相比,模拟情景预测了最后一个模拟十年(2041-2050 年)的年均水量趋势的几种变化:(1) 在炎热干燥的气候条件下,年均水量减少(-14%),年融雪上升期除外;(2) 在火灾模拟条件下,年均水量增加(+32%),峰值径流量增加;(3) 在复合(火灾 + 炎热/干燥)条件下,年均水量增加(+24%),峰值径流量提前且增加。这些发现表明了水文模型在分离溪流出口复合干扰信号方面的优势,以及在模型中对植被进行定量表示以充分反映动态干扰条件的必要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling compound hydrologic disturbances in the Rio Grande Headwaters

In recent decades, the western United States (U.S.) has experienced increasing magnitudes and frequencies of natural land cover disturbances that impact water budget partitioning. Post-disturbance hydrologic response is often variable at the stream outlet and is difficult to detect and quantify with traditional before–after control–impact studies. This study uses a modified version of the U.S. Geological Survey's Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM) to simulate and separate the hydrologic response to several forest disturbances, including (1) wildfire, (2) forest conversion (subalpine to mid-elevation forest) and (3) a climate that is hotter and drier than present in the Rio Grande Headwaters (RGH) in Colorado, U.S. (this climate scenario was derived from an ensemble of climate scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5, which were selected based on water stress potential in the state of Colorado). We leverage historic post-disturbance vegetation data in the RGH to add quantitative vegetation representation to the MWBM, then modeled synthetic future (2021–2050) streamflow scenarios as both single and compound disturbances. Relative to a baseline scenario, modeled scenarios predict several changes to average annual water trends over the final simulation decade (2041–2050); (1) decreases in average annual water yield under a hot and dry climate (−14%), except during the rising limb of annual snowmelt; (2) increases in average annual water yield (+32%) and peak runoff under a fire simulation; and (3) increases in average annual water yield (+24%) along with earlier and higher peak runoff under compound (fire + hot/dry) conditions. These findings show the strengths of hydrologic models in separating compound disturbance signals at the stream outlet and a need for quantitative vegetation representation within models to adequately represent dynamic disturbance conditions.

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来源期刊
Journal of The American Water Resources Association
Journal of The American Water Resources Association 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
100
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: JAWRA seeks to be the preeminent scholarly publication on multidisciplinary water resources issues. JAWRA papers present ideas derived from multiple disciplines woven together to give insight into a critical water issue, or are based primarily upon a single discipline with important applications to other disciplines. Papers often cover the topics of recent AWRA conferences such as riparian ecology, geographic information systems, adaptive management, and water policy. JAWRA authors present work within their disciplinary fields to a broader audience. Our Associate Editors and reviewers reflect this diversity to ensure a knowledgeable and fair review of a broad range of topics. We particularly encourage submissions of papers which impart a ''take home message'' our readers can use.
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