牛鞭效应、需求不确定性和成本结构

IF 3.2 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Clara Xiaoling Chen, Jing Liang, Shilei Yang, Jing Zhu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

企业层面的牛鞭效应是指供应链中需求不确定性的放大,即企业生产(对于制造企业)或供应商采购(对于零售商或批发商)的波动往往大于其需求波动。我们预测,牛鞭比率(牛鞭效应的代表)会放大需求不确定性与成本结构之间的关系。我们之所以预期这种放大效应,是因为牛鞭效应决定了需求不确定性转化为生产或采购不确定性的程度,而生产或采购不确定性反过来又会影响成本结构。利用 1990-2020 年期间美国上市公司的数据,我们发现结果与我们的预测一致。具体而言,我们发现制造业需求不确定性与成本弹性之间的负相关关系,以及零售/批发业需求不确定性与成本弹性之间的正相关关系,对于牛鞭率较高的企业而言都更为强烈。我们通过强调牛鞭效应在成本结构决策中的重要作用,为有关成本结构的文献做出了贡献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The bullwhip effect, demand uncertainty, and cost structure

The bullwhip effect, demand uncertainty, and cost structure

The firm-level bullwhip effect is the amplification of demand uncertainty along a supply chain—that is, fluctuations in production (for manufacturing firms) or purchases from suppliers (for retailers or wholesalers) in a firm tend to be greater than its demand fluctuations. We predict that the bullwhip ratio (a proxy for the bullwhip effect) amplifies the relation between demand uncertainty and cost structure. We expect this amplifying effect because the bullwhip ratio determines the extent to which demand uncertainty translates into uncertainty in production or purchases, which, in turn, affects cost structure. Using data from public US firms over the 1990–2020 period, we find results consistent with our prediction. Specifically, we find that both the negative relation between demand uncertainty and cost elasticity in the manufacturing sector and the positive relation between the two in the retail/wholesale sectors are stronger for firms with higher bullwhip ratios. We contribute to the literature on cost structure by highlighting the important role of the bullwhip effect in cost structure decisions.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
11.10%
发文量
97
期刊介绍: Contemporary Accounting Research (CAR) is the premiere research journal of the Canadian Academic Accounting Association, which publishes leading- edge research that contributes to our understanding of all aspects of accounting"s role within organizations, markets or society. Canadian based, increasingly global in scope, CAR seeks to reflect the geographical and intellectual diversity in accounting research. To accomplish this, CAR will continue to publish in its traditional areas of excellence, while seeking to more fully represent other research streams in its pages, so as to continue and expand its tradition of excellence.
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