汇款对出口和经济增长的影响:一项跨国分析

IF 0.1 Q4 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
Imtiyaz Ahmad Shah
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文对2000-2020年38个高收入国家和50个中等收入国家的面板数据集进行了研究,得出了关于汇款对出口和经济增长影响的有力结果。首先,我们估计了控制经济增长后汇款对出口的影响。通过面板动态面板估计,当汇款对出口进行回归时,高收入国家和中等收入国家的汇款与阈值ln(12.63)和ln(15.66)呈反u型关系,超过阈值,出口开始上升。经济增长正在对出口产生积极而显著的影响。其次,在控制了经济增长的各种宏观决定因素后,我们估计了汇款和出口对经济增长的影响。在经济增长方面,对于高收入国家,汇款与阈值ln(12.63)呈u型关系,对于经济增长开始下降的低收入国家,汇款与阈值ln(15.66)呈u型关系。出口对经济增长的积极作用正在显现。出口增长100%会导致高收入和中等收入国家的出口分别增长15%和12%。其他变量,如人均物质资本和人力资本,对经济增长也显示出积极和显著的影响。政府支出具有负系数,因此,它恶化了经济增长。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of remittances on exports and economic growth: a cross country analysis
Abstract We present robust results on the impact of remittances on exports and economic growth for panel data sets of 38 high-income and 50 middle-income countries for 2000-2020. First, we estimate the impact of remittances on exports after controlling economic growth. By panel dynamic panel estimation, when regressing remittances on exports, remittances show an inverse U-shaped relationship with a threshold value of ln(12.63) for high-income and ln(15.66) middle-income countries above which exports begin to rise. Economic growth is showing a positive and significant impact on exports. Second, we estimate the impact of remittances and exports on economic growth after controlling various macro determinants of economic growth. On economic growth, remittances present a U-shaped relationship with threshold value ln (12.63) for higher income and ln(15.66) for lower-income countries above which economic growth starts to decline. Exports are showing a positive and significant effect on economic growth. A 100% increase in exports leads to a 15% and 12% increase in exports of high-income and middle-income countries. The other variables like physical capital per labour and human capital are showing a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Government expenditure has a negative coefficient, thus, it deteriorates economic growth.
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