中华人民共和国40年人口红利与劳动力供给:数量神话

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.1142/s0116110523400048

XIN MENG

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在过去的40年里，中华人民共和国(PRC)的经济取得了奇迹般的增长，其中很大一部分归功于该国的“人口红利”——即劳动年龄人口在总人口(WAPS)中所占的相对较大的份额——所带来的有利的劳动力供应。目前，这一红利正在消失，许多中国人对此非常担忧。在此背景下，我开始研究中国不断变化的WAPS的各个方面的贡献及其对经济增长的影响。我表明，在1982年至2015年间，WAPS的增加被劳动力参与率的下降所抵消，导致劳动力供应量的增加非常有限。然后，我估计了经济增长的区域差异与人口规模、WAPS、移民和教育等因素变化之间的关联。研究结果几乎不支持WAPS扩大在这一时期中国经济增长中发挥重要作用的观点。

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The People’s Republic of China’s 40-Year Demographic Dividend and Labor Supply: The Quantity Myth

During the past 40 years, the economy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has achieved miraculous growth, a significant part of which many have attributed to its favorable labor supply resulting from the country’s “demographic dividend”–that is, a relatively large share of the working-age population in the total population (WAPS). Currently, this dividend is slipping away, and many in the PRC are very concerned. Against this background, I set out to examine the contributions of various dimensions of the PRC’s changing WAPS and its impact on economic growth. I show that between 1982 and 2015 the increase in WAPS was offset by a decline in the labor force participation rate, resulting in a very limited increase in the quantity of the labor supply. I then estimate the association between regional variations in economic growth and changes in factors such as population size, WAPS, migration, and education. The results lend little support to the view that an expanding WAPS played a major role in the PRC’s economic growth over this period.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.