预测中国大陆规划地震台网的未来性能

IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Jiawei Li, Arnaud Mignan, Didier Sornette, Yu Feng
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中国地震局目前启动了一项雄心勃勃的全国地震活动监测网项目,该项目将把用于编制地震目录的宽带地震台站的台站数量从950个增加到2000个。新网络计划于2023年底上线。在中国大陆一半以上的地区,宽带地震台网站间距离将很快小于100公里,27%的地区小于50公里,6%的地区小于25公里。在所有可能表征中国大陆频繁的小地震的高分辨率监测的方法中,完整震级(Mc)仍然是最常用的方法之一。利用基于2009年1月1日至2022年6月26日中国地震目录标定的贝叶斯完备性震级先验模型,在规划台网配置的基础上,对新台网Mc的空间分布进行了预测。如果目前几乎整个中国大陆被覆盖到Mc=3.3,那么在不久的将来这个阈值将下降到Mc=2.9。这意味着每年可用于统计分析的完整目录中记录的地震数量将增加约两倍(对于古腾堡-里希特定律log10N=a - b·M中的a = 6.77和b = 0.80,其中N表示大于或等于M且M≥Mc的事件数量)。基于在主震震级以下至少3个震级最可能观测到异常地震活动作为前兆,并假设地震在M≥5级具有潜在破坏性,新的地震台网应实现基于地震的最优地震预报研究覆盖率达到76%的目标。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Predicting the Future Performance of the Planned Seismic Network in Chinese Mainland
Abstract The China Earthquake Administration has currently launched an ambitious nationwide seismicity monitoring network project that will increase the number of stations from ∼950 to 2000 for the broadband seismic stations used to compile the earthquake catalog. The new network is planned to go online by the end of 2023. For more than half of Chinese mainland, the interstation distance of the broadband seismic network will soon be smaller than 100 km, for 27% smaller than 50 km, and for 6% smaller than 25 km. Of all possible ways to characterize the higher-resolution monitoring of the frequent smaller earthquakes expected inside Chinese mainland, the completeness magnitude (Mc) remains one of the most commonly used. Using the prior model of the Bayesian magnitude of completeness method calibrated on the Chinese earthquake catalog from 1 January 2009 to 26 June 2022, we predict the spatial distribution of Mc for the new network based on the planned network configuration. If almost the entire Chinese mainland is at present covered down to Mc=3.3, this threshold will fall to Mc=2.9 in the near future. This means approximately two times more earthquakes will be recorded in the complete catalog available for statistical analysis per year (for a = 6.77 and b = 0.80 in the Gutenberg–Richter law log10N=a−b·M, in which N represents the number of events of magnitude larger than or equal to M and M≥Mc). Based on the observation that abnormal seismicity as precursors are most likely to be observed at least at three units below the mainshock magnitude, and assuming earthquakes to be potentially damaging at M ≥ 5, the new seismic network shall achieve the goal of 76% coverage for optimal seismic-based earthquake prediction research.
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来源期刊
Seismological Research Letters
Seismological Research Letters 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
6.60
自引率
12.10%
发文量
239
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Information not localized
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