区域全面经济伙伴关系能否改变全球纺织服装贸易走向?可计算的一般均衡分析

IF 3 Q2 BUSINESS

Vision-The Journal of Business Perspective Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI:10.1177/09722629231195478

Isha Jaswal

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的目的是调查区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)对纺织品和服装(T&C)部门国际贸易体制方向的重要性。选择该行业的原因是，RCEP区块在2019年出口的T&C产品占全球份额的50%。此外，从创造就业机会的角度来看，这个行业对世界上许多国家来说都是相当重要的，也是主要的外汇来源。考虑到自由贸易协定和取消与该部门有关的大多数关税细目的雄心勃勃的方法，RCEP可能会改变关税和关税贸易的方向，并在全球供应链中产生相关的溢出效益和权衡。本研究通过可计算的一般均衡模型进行了评估性研究。本文试图分析针对RCEP集团的潜在自由贸易协定对成员国国内生产总值、出口、工业生产、就业和福利的影响。据报道，对出口的影响是喜忧参半的，中国和越南等国家将获得巨大收益，而其他一些国家预计将遭受损失。与此类似，新加坡、越南、韩国、日本、中国和柬埔寨等RCEP成员国的石油产量似乎有所上升，而其他成员国的石油产量似乎有所下降。此外，人们注意到贸易正从非rcep成员国转移。对非RCEP成员国来说，一个重要的政策含义是批准与关税贸易有关的个别贸易协定。该研究表明，通过以印度为例，将其自由贸易协定纳入与RCEP非成员国(如英国)的贸易，然后与RCEP国家(如澳大利亚)的贸易，可以缓解RCEP的贸易转移效应。印度所谓的贸易协定与RCEP一起被纳入主要模式。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Can Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Alter the Direction of Global Textiles and Clothing Trade? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

The purpose of the article was to investigate the criticality of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to the direction of the international trade regime of the textiles and clothing (T&C) sector. The reason for selecting this sector is because RCEP block exported 50% of the global share of T&C products in 2019. Besides, this industry has been quite important from an employment generation point of view and a leading earner of foreign exchange for many nations around the world. Given the free trade agreement and an ambitious approach towards removing the majority of tariff lines pertaining to this sector, RCEP can potentially alter the direction of T&C trade and have related spillover benefits and trade-off in the global supply chain. This study undertakes an evaluative investigation through computable general equilibrium modelling. The article tries to analyse the impact of a potential free trade agreement specific to the RCEP block on the member nation’s gross domestic product, exports, industrial production, employment and welfare. The impact on exports is reportedly a mixed bag where countries such as China and Vietnam stand out to gain enormously while a few others are expected to lose. On similar lines, production in this sector appears to rise for RCEP members such as Singapore, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, China and Cambodia while for other members the same is seen to decline. Also, T&C trade is noticed to divert away from non-RCEP members. An important policy implication for non-member RCEP nations is to ratify individual trade agreements pertaining to T&C trade. The study shows the mitigation of the trade diversion effect of RCEP by taking India’s example and incorporating its free trade agreements in T&C trade with RCEP non-member country like the UK and then with RCEP nation like Australia. The supposed trade agreements of India have been incorporated in the main model along with RCEP.

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来源期刊

Vision-The Journal of Business Perspective Multiple-

CiteScore

4.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

121

期刊介绍： Vision-The Journal of Business Perspective is a quarterly peer-reviewed journal of the Management Development Institute, Gurgaon, India published by SAGE Publications. This journal contains papers in all functional areas of management, including economic and business environment. The journal is premised on creating influence on the academic as well as corporate thinkers. Vision-The Journal of Business Perspective is published in March, June, September and December every year. Its targeted readers are researchers, academics involved in research, and corporates with excellent professional backgrounds from India and other parts of the globe. Its contents have been often used as supportive course materials by the academics and corporate professionals. The journal has been providing opportunity for discussion and exchange of ideas across the widest spectrum of scholarly opinions to promote theoretical, empirical and comparative research on problems confronting the business world. Most of the contributors to this journal range from the outstanding and the well published to the upcoming young academics and corporate functionaries. The journal publishes theoretical as well as applied research works.