基于结构健康监测的桥梁生命周期延长:生存分析和基于蒙特卡罗的信息价值量化

IF 2.7 Q2 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY
Antti Valkonen, Branko Glisic
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引用次数: 0

摘要

结构健康监测(SHM)系统应用于基础设施的一个关键目标是改善资产管理。SHM系统通过提供允许改进资产管理决策的信息而产生效益。通常,改进是用货币来衡量的,因此寻求更低的费用。信息价值(VoI)通常通过量化SHM系统提供的信息所产生的增量效益来评估。VoI可以被认为有两个组成部分:来自基础设施改进操作的价值和来自延长使用寿命的价值。这项工作的重点是后一种价值来源在美国公路桥梁的混凝土甲板的背景下。为了估计生命周期延长潜力和相关的VoI,我们需要模拟桥面状况随时间的退化,以支持桥梁更换成本的贴现现金流分析。我们通过利用基于神经网络的生存分析与蒙特卡罗模拟相结合来实现这一目标。我们提出了一个使用开发方法的案例研究。我们选择研究位于新泽西州韦恩市的美国202高速公路大桥的南行部分。所选桥梁为具有代表性的混凝土公路立交桥,这种类型在美国数量较多。实例研究表明,开发的方法适用于通过SHM获得的VoI的一般评价。这些结果鼓舞了SHM在生命周期扩展方面的广泛应用;这些应用的潜在价值是巨大的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Structural Health Monitoring-Based Bridge Lifecycle Extension: Survival Analysis and Monte Carlo-Based Quantification of Value of Information
A key goal of structural health monitoring (SHM) systems applied to infrastructure is to improve asset management. SHM systems yield benefits by providing information that allows improved asset management decisions. Often, improvement is measured in monetary terms, whereby lower expenses are sought. The value of information (VoI) is often evaluated through the quantification of the incremental benefit, resulting from the information provided by the SHM system. The VoI can be considered as having two components: value derived from the improved operation of the infrastructure and value derived from increased useful life. This work focuses on the latter source of value in the context of concrete decks in US highway bridges. To estimate the lifecycle extension potential and the connected VoI, we need to simulate bridge deck condition degradation over time to support a discounted cash flow analysis of bridge replacement cost. We accomplish this by utilizing a neural network-based survival analysis combined with Monte Carlo simulation. We present a case study using the developed methods. We have chosen to study the southbound portion of the bridge on the US Highway 202, located in Wayne, NJ. The selected bridge is a representative concrete highway overpass, the type of which there are large numbers in the US. The case study demonstrates the applicability of the methods developed for the general evaluation of the VoI obtained via SHM. The results are encouraging for the widespread use of SHM for lifecycle extension purposes; the potential value in such applications is large.
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来源期刊
Infrastructures
Infrastructures Engineering-Building and Construction
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
7.70%
发文量
145
审稿时长
11 weeks
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