COVID - 19死亡率反映了欧盟国家的卫生质量

IF 2.1 Q2 ECONOMICS
Beáta Stehlíková, Zuzana Vincúrová, Ivan Brezina, Ilona Švihlíková
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文旨在模拟欧盟成员国的COVID-19死亡率。它取决于所选择的因素,确定因素的重要性排名,并试图减少它们。进一步的目标包括确定具有类似已确定因素值及其地理集中的国家。这是一项探索性研究,是一项根据所用数据类型进行的定量研究。使用监督机器学习随机森林算法,我们根据分析的因素预测COVID-19的死亡人数。从23个因素中,我们选择了7个最重要的因素。这个选择是基于最高值,Inc节点纯度。聚类分析用于创建具有所选因素相似值的状态组。由于报告死亡人数的方法不统一,我们使用超额死亡率来衡量COVID-19死亡率。影响COVID-19死亡率的最重要因素是循环系统疾病的死亡率。第二个最重要的因素是可避免的死亡率。第三个最相关的因素是按购买力平价计算的人均GDP。在保加利亚、罗马尼亚、捷克共和国、波兰、斯洛伐克、立陶宛、匈牙利、克罗地亚和拉脱维亚也发现了类似的分析因子值。这些国家的COVID-19死亡率几乎是欧盟其他国家的三倍。决策者可以利用获得的研究结果减少保健领域的不平等现象,主要是通过对公共保健和初级预防进行有效干预。结果表明,在未来的凝聚力政策框架中,需要更多的投资来促进健康。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
COVID 19 mortality as a reflection of the quality of health in EU countries
The article aims to model the COVID-19 mortality in EU member states. It depends on chosen factors, determine the ranking of factors' importance and attempts for their reduction. Further objectives include identifying states with similar values of identified factors and their geographical concentration. This is exploratory research and is a quantitative research study according to the type of data used. Using the supervised machine learning random forest algorithm, we predict the number of COVID-19 deaths depending on analyzed factors. From 23 factors, we choose the seven most important factors. This selection is based on the highest value, Inc Node Purity. The cluster analysis is used to create groups of states with similar values of chosen factors. Because of the nonuniform methodology of reported deaths, we use excess mortality to measure COVID-19 mortality. The most important factor influencing COVID-19 mortality is the death rate due to circulatory system diseases. The second most significant factor is the avoidable mortality. The third most relevant factor is GDP per capita in purchasing power parity. Similar values of analyzed factors can be found in Bulgaria, Romania, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Lithuania, Hungary, Croatia, and Latvia. COVID-19 mortality in these countries is almost three times higher than in the rest of the EU. Decision-makers could use the gained findings to decrease inequalities in the field of healthcare, mostly through efficient interventions in public healthcare and primary prevention. The results demonstrate that more investment in promoting health in the future will be necessary in the cohesion policy framework.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
6.70%
发文量
40
审稿时长
24 weeks
期刊介绍: Economics and Sociology (ISSN 2306-3459 Online, ISSN 2071-789X Print) is a quarterly international academic open access journal published by Centre of Sociological Research in co-operation with University of Szczecin (Poland), Mykolas Romeris University (Lithuania), Dubcek University of Trencín, Faculty of Social and Economic Relations, (Slovak Republic) and University of Entrepreneurship and Law, (Czech Republic). The general topical framework of our publication include (but is not limited to): advancing socio-economic analysis of societies and economies, institutions and organizations, social groups, networks and relationships.[...] We welcome articles written by professional scholars and practitioners in: economic studies and philosophy of economics, political sciences and political economy, research in history of economics and sociological phenomena, sociology and gender studies, economic and social issues of education, socio-economic and institutional issues in environmental management, business administration and management of SMEs, state governance and socio-economic implications, economic and sociological development of the NGO sector, cultural sociology, urban and rural sociology and demography, migration studies, international issues in business risk and state security, economics of welfare.
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