在货币政策报告中传达金融稳定性:后共产主义国家的文本挖掘实验

IF 1.3 Q3 MANAGEMENT
Łukasz Kurowski, Paweł Smaga
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引用次数: 0

摘要

自全球金融危机以来,金融稳定已成为各国央行关注的焦点。然而,货币政策和金融稳定政策之间的最佳组合仍不明朗。在这项研究中,对这种政策组合的“软”方法进行了测试——货币政策(在通胀报告中)分析金融稳定问题的频率。本文旨在探讨上述目标。设计/方法/方法使用文本挖掘方法对1998-2019年由后共产主义国家的11家央行发布的648份通胀报告进行了审查。结果表明,金融稳定主题(主要是系统性风险的周期性方面)平均只占通胀报告内容的2%。尽管这一比例自全球金融危机以来有所增长(在CZ、HU和PL),但仍处于较低水平。因此,没有足够的证据表明后共产主义国家使用了“软”政策组合。鉴于价格与金融稳定之间存在很强的相互作用,本文强调货币政策制定者需要增加对金融稳定问题的关注。该研究结合了两个研究领域,即货币政策和现代文本挖掘技术,以后共产主义国家为样本,据作者所知,这在以前的文献中还没有得到充分的探讨。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Communicating financial stability in monetary policy reports: a text-mining experiment in postcommunist countries
PurposeFinancial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies remains unclear. In this study, the “soft” approach to such policy mix was tested – how often monetary policy (in inflation reports) analyses financial stability issues. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective.Design/methodology/approachA total of 648 inflation reports published by 11 central banks from post-communist countries in 1998-2019 were reviewed using a text-mining method.FindingsResults show that financial stability topics (mainly cyclical aspects of systemic risk) on average account for only 2%of inflation reports’ content. Although this share has grown somewhat since the global financial crisis (in CZ, HU and PL), it still remains at a low level. Thus, not enough evidence was found on the use of a “soft” policy mix in post-communist countries.Practical implicationsGiven the strong interactions between price and financial stability, this paper emphasizes the need to increase the attention of monetary policymakers to financial stability issues.Originality/valueThe study combines two research areas, i.e. monetary policy and modern text mining techniques on a sample of post-communist countries, something which to the best of the authors’ knowledge has not been sufficiently explored in the literature before.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.20
自引率
11.10%
发文量
21
审稿时长
24 weeks
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