Survival prediction nomogram for patients with vertebral bone metastases treated with palliative radiotherapy

Background: In the treatment of vertebral bone metastases, estimating patient prognosis is important to select the optimal treatment strategy. The purpose of this study was to identify prognostic factors for vertebral bone metastases treated with palliative radiotherapy and to establish a nomogram for predicting patient survival. Materials and methods: We analyzed patients who underwent palliative radiotherapy for vertebral bone metastasis between January 2010 and December 2020 at a single institution. Exclusion criteria were as follows: (1) primary bone malignancy, (2) stereotactic body radiotherapy, (3) concurrent radiotherapy to sites other than the vertebral bone, (4) radiotherapy to other sites within 12 weeks before or after the current radiotherapy, and (5) lack of more than half of blood test data before radiotherapy. Results: A total of 487 patients met the inclusion criteria. Clinical and hematologic data were collected from the patient record system. Patients were divided into training and test groups in a 7:3 ratio. Multivariate Cox regression analysis in the training cohort revealed six significant factors, including a history of chemotherapy, primary site (breast cancer, prostate cancer, or hematologic malignancy), use of analgesics, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, serum albumin, and lactate dehydrogenase. A prognostic nomogram was developed and validated in the test cohort. The area under the curve (AUC) values in predicting survival at 6, 24, and 60 months were 0.83, 0.88, and 0.88 in the training cohort and 0.85, 0.81, and 0.79 in the test cohort, respectively. Conclusions: This nomogram may help to select the treatment strategy for vertebral bone metastases.