Short-term recovery of post-fire vegetation is primarily limited by drought in Mediterranean forest ecosystems

Abstract Background Climate change is altering the fire regime and compromising the post-fire recovery of vegetation worldwide. To understand the factors influencing post-fire vegetation cover restoration, we calculated the recovery of vegetation in 200,000 hectares of western Mediterranean forest burned by 268 wildfires over a 27-year period (1988–2015). We used time series of the Tasseled Cap Transformation Brightness (TCTB) spectral transformation over Landsat imagery to calculate vegetation recovery. Then, we quantified the importance of the main drivers of post-fire vegetation recovery (climate, fire severity, and topography) along an aridity gradient (semi-arid, sub-humid, and humid) using Random Forest models. Results In most models (99.7%), drought duration was the most important factor, negatively affecting post-fire recovery especially in the extremes of the aridity gradient. Fire severity was the second most important factor for vegetation cover recovery, with its effect varying along the aridity gradient: there was a positive relationship between fire severity and recovery in sub-humid and humid areas, while semi-arid areas showed the opposite pattern. Topographic variables were the least important driver and had a marginal effect on post-fire recovery. Additionally, semi-arid areas exhibited a low mean recovery rate, indicating limitations in the short-term recovery after a fire. Conclusions Our study highlights the key role that drought duration plays in the recovery of vegetation after wildfires in the Mediterranean basin and, particularly, in forests located in climatically extreme areas. The results suggest that the predicted increase in drought duration coupled with a higher frequency and intensity of large fires may modify the structure and composition of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Our analysis provides relevant information to evaluate and design adaptive management strategies in post-fire recovery hotspots of Mediterranean forest ecosystems.