Spatio-temporal evaluation of ecosystem services in the São Paulo Macrometropolis, Brazil

Urbanization is one of the key factors that drive changes in ecosystem services. Although various studies have analyzed relationships between land-cover change and ecosystem services degradation, few have explored the impacts in future scenarios in mega metropolitan areas. This work performed an individual and integrated spatio-temporal assessment of four ecosystem services in the São Paulo Macrometropolis, the largest urban agglomeration in Latin America, in different land-cover scenarios using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) software. Correlation analysis and map algebra were used to identify trade-offs and synergies, as well as hotspots and coldspots of multiple ecosystem services. The results showed decreasing trends in the supply capacity of erosion control, carbon storage, and seasonal water yield in the entire São Paulo Macrometropolis and most of its Regional Units, as well as evidence of a worsening of trade-offs between the ecosystem services evaluated. Furthermore, areas with a high supply of three or more ecosystem services were coincident with Conservation Areas, emphasizing the importance of these protected areas. By revealing important relationships among four ecosystem services, the outputs suggest regions and combinations of services for which spatial planning and appropriate conservation mechanisms can be used to optimize synergies and mitigate trade-offs. The results can help land use planning practitioners and decision-makers to design management strategies and policies for conservation and restoration based on linkages between specific units and associated ecosystem services and their trade-offs in this strategic region of Brazil.