Production Forecasting of Unruly Geoenergy Extraction Wells Using Gaussian Decline Curve Analysis

Fast and rigorous well performance evaluation is made possible by new solutions of the pressure diffusion equation. The derived Gaussian pressure transient (GPT) solutions can be practically formulated as a decline curve analysis (DCA) equation for history matching of historic well rates to then forecast the future well performance and estimate the remaining reserves. Application in rate transient analysis (RTA) mode is also possible to estimate fracture half-lengths. Because GPT solutions are physics-based, these can be used for production forecasting as well as in reservoir simulation mode (by computing the spatial and temporal pressure gradients everywhere in the reservoir section drained by either an existing or a planned well). The present paper focuses on the physics-based production forecasting of so-called “unruly” wells, which at first seem to have production behavior noncompliant with any DCA curve. Four shale wells (one from the Utica, Ohio; one from the Eagle Ford Formation, East Texas; and two from the Wolfcamp Formation, West Texas) are analyzed in detail. Physics-based adjustments are made to the Gaussian DCA history matching process, showing how the production rate of these wells is fully compliant with the rate implied by the hydraulic diffusivity of the reservoir sections where these wells drain from.