纽约州保释取消法对综合犯罪短期影响的综合控制分析

IF 1.5 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS
Angela Zhou, Andrew Koo, Nathan Kallus, Rene Ropac, Richard Peterson, Stephen Koppel, Tiffany Bergin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们对纽约保释改革对犯罪的短期影响进行了实证评估。纽约州《取消保释法案》于2020年1月1日生效,取消了几乎所有轻罪和非暴力重罪被告的保释金和审前拘留。我们对改革后对总犯罪率的影响的分析,有助于理解保释改革和一般威慑,而不是通过被拘留/释放人口的再逮捕率来进行具体威慑。我们对保释改革影响的比较案例研究进行了综合控制分析。我们专注于对袭击、盗窃、入室盗窃、抢劫和毒品犯罪的干预后犯罪变化的综合控制分析,构建了一个来自27个大城市公开报告的犯罪数据集。由于COVID-19发病前的时间很短,影响深远,我们将注意力限制在干预后的短时间内。尽管如此,对短期影响的评估仍然可以为保释改革政策的一般威慑假设提供依据。我们的研究结果,包括安慰剂检验和其他稳健性检验,表明对于袭击、盗窃和毒品犯罪,保释改革对总犯罪没有显著影响。对于抢劫,我们发现统计上有显著的增长;对于入室盗窃,综合控制的变数更大,我们的分析被认为不那么确凿。由于我们的研究评估的是短期影响,因此仍有必要进一步研究保释改革的长期影响和具体威慑作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Synthetic Control Analysis of the Short-Term Impact of New York State’s Bail Elimination Act on Aggregate Crime
We conduct an empirical evaluation of the short-term impact of New York’s bail reform on crime. New York State’s Bail Elimination Act went into effect on January 1, 2020, eliminating money bail and pretrial detention for nearly all misdemeanor and nonviolent felony defendants. Our analysis of effects on aggregate crime rates after the reform informs the understanding of bail reform and general deterrence, rather than specific deterrence via re-arrest rates of the detained/released population. We conduct a synthetic control analysis for a comparative case study of the impact of bail reform. We focus on synthetic control analysis of post-intervention changes in crime for assault, theft, burglary, robbery, and drug crimes, constructing a dataset from publicly reported crime data of 27 large municipalities. Due to the short time frame before the onset of COVID-19 and its far-reaching effects, we restrict attention to a short post-intervention time period. Nonetheless, evaluation of short-term impacts may still inform hypotheses of general deterrence of bail reform policy. Our findings, including placebo checks and other robustness checks, show that for assault, theft, and drug crimes, there is no significant impact of bail reform on aggregate crime. For robbery, we find a statistically significant increase; for burglary, the synthetic control is more variable and our analysis is deemed less conclusive. Since our study assesses the short-term impacts, further work studying long-term impacts of bail reform and on specific deterrence remains necessary.
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来源期刊
Statistics and Public Policy
Statistics and Public Policy SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS-
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
6.20%
发文量
13
审稿时长
32 weeks
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