尼罗河会变成一个湖吗?大埃塞俄比亚复兴(GERD)大坝案例研究

IF 0.3 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Global Environment Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.3197/ge.2023.160303

Desirée A.l. Quagliarotti

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引用次数: 0

摘要

今天，许多学者一致认为，由人口增长、经济发展和气候变化影响引发的可用水性变化将加剧用水户之间的竞争，使冲突更有可能发生，特别是在那些缺乏应对水相关挑战的财政、技术和治理能力的国家和/或共享水资源的流域沿岸国。早在2012年，美国国家情报总监办公室(ODNI)就从区域和全球层面对水问题进行了分析，得出结论认为，尽管未来十年不太可能发生与水有关的国与国之间的冲突，但预计在不久的将来，这一问题将变得更加严重。本文从历史重建和尼罗河流域水争端的地缘政治影响出发，以大埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝(GERD)为例，旨在分析影响上游国家的政治、社会经济和环境变化，并探索这些新动态如何挑战该地区的权力平衡和正在进行的合作进程。

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Will the Nile River Turn into a Lake? The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance (GERD) Dam Case-Study

Today, many scholars agree that changes in water availability triggered by population growth, economic development and climate change impact will increase competition between water users, making conflict more likely, especially in those countries that lack the financial, technical and governance capacities to address water-related challenge and/or in river basin riparian states that share common water resources. As early as 2012, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), analysing the water issue at a regional and global level, concluded that, while water-related state-on-state conflict is unlikely to occur during the next ten years, the problem is projected to get worse in the near future. Starting from the historical reconstruction and the geopolitical repercussions of the water dispute in the Nile River Basin and focusing on the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), this article aims to analyse the political, socio-economic and environmental changes that are affecting upstream countries and to detect how these new dynamics are challenging both the balance of power and the ongoing cooperation process in the region.

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来源期刊

Global Environment ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

0.50

自引率

25.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The half-yearly journal Global Environment: A Journal of History and Natural and Social Sciences acts as a forum and echo chamber for ongoing studies on the environment and world history, with special focus on modern and contemporary topics. Our intent is to gather and stimulate scholarship that, despite a diversity of approaches and themes, shares an environmental perspective on world history in its various facets, including economic development, social relations, production government, and international relations. One of the journal’s main commitments is to bring together different areas of expertise in both the natural and the social sciences to facilitate a common language and a common perspective in the study of history. This commitment is fulfilled by way of peer-reviewed research articles and also by interviews and other special features. Global Environment strives to transcend the western-centric and ‘developist’ bias that has dominated international environmental historiography so far and to favour the emergence of spatially and culturally diversified points of view. It seeks to replace the notion of ‘hierarchy’ with those of ‘relationship’ and ‘exchange’ – between continents, states, regions, cities, central zones and peripheral areas – in studying the construction or destruction of environments and ecosystems.