基于季节自回归综合移动平均和神经网络自回归模型的混合方法预测阿尔及利亚El Oued省2005 - 2020年蝎子蜇伤发生率

IF 1.4 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Safia Zenia, Mohamed L’Hadj, Schehrazad Selmane
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景:本研究旨在寻找预测蝎子蜇伤的最佳统计方法。研究设计:回顾性研究。方法:采用多元回归、季节自回归综合移动平均(SARIMA)、神经网络自回归(NNAR)和SARIMA-NNAR混合模型对El Oued省每月蝎子蜇伤病例进行预测。采用均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)对不同模型进行定量比较。结果:2005-2020年,该省共记录蝎子蜇伤96909例。发病率在2012年之前逐渐下降,此后出现轻微波动。蝎子蜇伤全年都有发生,高峰期在9月,其次是7月和8月,低谷在12月和1月。毒刺案件在人口群体中分布不均;15-49岁是受影响最大的年龄组,男性更容易被蜇伤。在报告的死亡人数中,超过一半是15岁及以下的儿童。蝎子的活动受气候因素的影响,温度的影响最大。选择SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,1)12、NNAR(1,1,2)12和SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,1)12-NNAR(1,1,2)12作为最佳拟合模型。SARIMA和SARIMA-NNAR模型的RMSE、MAE和MAPE在拟合和预测上均低于NNAR模型;然而,NNAR模型可以产生更好的预测准确性。结论:NNAR模型是预测短期月均蝎子蜇伤的首选模型。深入了解蝎子病的流行病学三位一体和预测模型的发展,应该建立开明、知情、更有针对性和更有效的政策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Hybrid Approach Based on Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Neural Network Autoregressive Models to Predict Scorpion Sting Incidence in El Oued Province, Algeria, From 2005 to 2020
Background: This study was designed to find the best statistical approach to scorpion sting predictions. Study Design: A retrospective study. Methods: Multiple regression, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), neural network autoregressive (NNAR), and hybrid SARIMA-NNAR models were developed to predict monthly scorpion sting cases in El Oued province. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to quantitatively compare different models. Results: In general, 96909 scorpion stings were recorded in El Oued province from 2005-2020. The incidence rate experienced a gradual decrease until 2012 and since then slight fluctuations have been noted. Scorpion stings occurred throughout the year with peaks in September followed by July and August and troughs in December and January. Sting cases were not evenly distributed across demographic groups; the most affected age group was 15-49 years, and males were more likely to be stung. Of the reported deaths, more than half were in children 15 and younger. Scorpion’s activity was conditioned by climate factors, and temperature had the highest effect. The SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,1)12, NNAR(1,1,2)12, and SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,1)12-NNAR(1,1,2)12 were selected as the best-fitting models. The RMSE, MAE, and MAPE of the SARIMA and SARIMA-NNAR models were lower than those of the NNAR model in fitting and forecasting; however, the NNAR model could produce better predictive accuracy. Conclusion: The NNAR model is preferred for short-term monthly scorpion sting predictions. An in-depth understanding of the epidemiologic triad of scorpionism and the development of predictive models ought to establish enlightened, informed, better-targeted, and more effective policies.
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来源期刊
Journal of research in health sciences
Journal of research in health sciences PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
13.30%
发文量
7
期刊介绍: The Journal of Research in Health Sciences (JRHS) is the official journal of the School of Public Health; Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, which is published quarterly. Since 2017, JRHS is published electronically. JRHS is a peer-reviewed, scientific publication which is produced quarterly and is a multidisciplinary journal in the field of public health, publishing contributions from Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Public Health, Occupational Health, Environmental Health, Health Education, and Preventive and Social Medicine. We do not publish clinical trials, nursing studies, animal studies, qualitative studies, nutritional studies, health insurance, and hospital management. In addition, we do not publish the results of laboratory and chemical studies in the field of ergonomics, occupational health, and environmental health
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