评估气候变化和洪水对桥梁及周边地区的影响

IF 2.2 Q2 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY
Bassel Habeeb, Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化有可能对交通基础设施的性能产生重大影响。考虑到该地区洪水的预期频率和震级,跨越河流的桥梁被设计为能够承受最大洪水水位(设计洪水)。设计洪水水位确保了桥梁的安全,而不会受到历史洪水水位的破坏。然而,由于气候变化,洪水的规模和/或频率预计会在一些地区增加,因此,桥梁可能无法保持其可用性和安全性,从而给用户带来重大风险和经济损失。本文通过调查洪水和气候变化对河流和周边地区桥梁的影响来探讨这一问题。所提出的方法的输入是各种气候变化情景下的河流流量以及地形和桥梁特征。洪水频率分析用于提供气候变化下河流年最大流量的大小和频率的信息。然后,对桥梁及其周边地区进行了若干风险评估指标的计算。此外,结合随机泊松过程,考虑了洪水到达的随机性,并随机考察了超过设计洪水位的概率。本文以英国的一个案例研究说明了所提出的方法。结果表明,当考虑更悲观的气候变化情景时,案例研究的洪水风险及其相关后果将增加。本研究的结果可用于改善桥梁弹性的决策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessment of the impact of climate change and flooding on bridges and surrounding area
Climate change has the potential to significantly impact transportation infrastructure performance. Bridges crossing rivers are designed to withstand a maximum flood level (design flood) considering the expected frequencies and magnitudes of floods in the area. The design flood level ensures the safety of the bridge without being damaged against historical flooding levels. However, flood magnitude and/or frequency are expected to increase in some regions due to climate change, and therefore, bridges may not be able to maintain their serviceability and safety, resulting in significant risk to users and economic losses. This problem is approached in this paper by investigating the effects of flooding and climate change on bridges crossing rivers and surrounding areas. The input of the proposed methodology is the river flow for various climate change scenarios as well as the topography and bridge characteristics. Flood frequency analysis is used to provide information about the magnitude and frequency of annual maximum river discharges under a changing climate. Afterwards, several risk assessment indicators are computed for the bridge and its surrounding area. In addition, stochastic Poisson process is integrated to account for the randomness of floods arrivals and to investigate stochastically the probability of exceeding the design flood level. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a case study in the United Kingdom. The results indicate that the risk of flooding, and associated consequences, would increase for the case study when considering more pessimistic climate change scenarios. Findings from this study can be used to inform decision making for improving bridges’ resilience.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Built Environment
Frontiers in Built Environment Social Sciences-Urban Studies
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
6.70%
发文量
266
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