NDVI-Derived Vegetation Trends and Driving Factors in West African Sudanian Savanna

The Sudanian savanna is a key vegetation biome in West Africa providing food and vital ecosystem services. Recently, it has been reported alarming vegetation loss in this biome, calling for more investigation, relevant to tackle land degradation and ensure food security. However, vegetation dynamics in this area remains a matter of debate, and one of the main challenges is to document consistently the underlying driving factors. This study aimed at assessing vegetation trends and driving factors from 2000 to 2022. NDVI trend, detected using the Mann-Kendall’s monotonic trend test, was used as proxy to express vegetation dynamics. In addition to the non-parametric Spearman correlation analysis, variables importance scores, derived from Random Forest (RF) classifications, were used to determine key driving factors among climatic, topographic, edaphic, accessibility and demographic factors. During 2000-2022, no significant trends largely characterised the vegetation cover of the study area. However, patterns of strong (weak) browning and strong (weak) greening affected 7.1% (10.6%) and 12.8% (19.1%) of the study area respectively. According to the driving factors analysis, the observed vegetation trends were mainly driven by rainfall dynamics (trend and mean annual), population growth and anthropogenic activities. The results of this study can support the development of efficient strategies for safeguarding vegetation cover in the Sudanian savanna of Burkina Faso.