货币政策与出生率:抵押贷款利率传递对生育率的影响

IF 5.9 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-03-04 DOI:10.1093/restud/rdad034

Fergus Cumming, Lisa Dettling

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要本文考察了货币政策对抵押贷款利率的传导是否会影响家庭生育决策。我们的实证策略利用了家庭对利率调整资格的差异，以及英国和美国大衰退期间货币政策利率的大幅下降。我们估计，政策利率每下降一个百分点，有资格调整利率的家庭的出生率就会提高3%。我们的研究结果为货币政策向家庭传导的本质提供了新的证据，并提出了一种新的机制，通过这种机制，抵押贷款合同结构可以影响总需求和总供给。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility

Abstract This paper examines whether monetary policy pass-through to mortgage interest rates affects household fertility decisions. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in households’ eligibility for a rate adjustment, coupled with the large reductions in the monetary policy rate that occurred during the Great Recession in the U.K. and U.S. We estimate that each one percentage point drop in the policy rate increased birth rates amongst households eligible for a rate adjustment by 3%. Our results provide new evidence on the nature of monetary policy transmission to households and suggest a new mechanism via which mortgage contract structures can affect both aggregate demand and supply.

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来源期刊

Review of Economic Studies ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

10.40

自引率

3.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： Founded in 1933 by a group of young British and American economists, The Review of Economic Studies aims to encourage research in theoretical and applied economics, especially by young economists. Today it is widely recognised as one of the core top-five economics journals. The Review is essential reading for economists and has a reputation for publishing path-breaking papers in theoretical and applied economics. The Review is committed to continuing to publish strong papers in all areas of economics. The Editors aim to provide an efficient and high-quality review process to the Review''s authors. Where articles are sent out for full review, authors receive careful reports and feedback. Since 1989 The Review has held annual May Meetings to offer young students in economics and finance the chance to present their research to audiences in Europe.