公共债务对某些东非共同体成员国利率的影响

Lenity Kananu Maugu, Julius Korir, George Kosimbei
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摘要

东非共同体成员国已经开始采取各种策略来降低该地区的利率,以促进投资,从而加速经济增长。然而,尽管进行了许多改革,但利率远高于非洲其他发达国家。为了提振投资,这些国家迅速增加了公共债务,超过了条约中规定的债务占国内生产总值(gdp) 50%的比例。本研究的主要目的是考察选定的东非共同体成员国的公共债务对利率的影响。本研究以可贷基金模型为基础,采用描述性面板研究设计。该数据集来自1980年至2020年期间的世界发展指标和佩恩世界表。该数据集来自次级来源:世界银行的《世界发展指标》、《宾夕法尼亚大学世界表格》、《经济调查》和《1980年至2020年统计摘要》。采用面板自回归分布滞后法对研究进行分析。研究发现,公共债务对这五个国家的长期利率有积极影响。因此,这些国家的政府需要采取有效措施,实行财政纪律。此外,东非共同体国家可以使用优惠贷款,这些贷款具有更优惠的条件,如较低的利率、延期还款和按收入偿还
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Effects of Public Debt on Interest Rates in Selected East African Community Member States
East African Community member states have embarked on various strategies to reduce interest rates in the region to boost investment so as to accelerate economic growth. However, despite the many reforms, the interest rates are far higher than in other countries in Africa, which are more developed. In an attempt to bolster investment, these states have increased public debt rapidly, exceeding the debt ratio of 50 per cent of Gross Domestic Product as provided in their treaty. The main objective of this study was to examine the effects of public debt on interest rates in selected East African Community member states. The study was anchored on the loanable fund model and used a descriptive panel research design. The dataset was drawn from World Development Indicators and Penn World Tables for the period 1980 to 2020. The dataset was drawn from secondary sources: World Bank's World Development Indicators, Penn World Tables, Economic Surveys and Statistical Abstracts for the period 1980 to 2020. The Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag method was used to analyse the study. The study found that public debt had a positive effect on the long-term interest rate in the five countries combined. Therefore, these governments need to take effective measures to pursue fiscal discipline. Additionally, EAC states can use concessional loans, which have more favourable terms like lower interest rates, deferred repayments, and income-contingent repayments
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