预期在澳洲居住长者护理机构的逗留时间:现时及未来

IF 1.6 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY
Jinhui Zhang, Yanlin Shi, Guogui Huang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要:本研究探讨了2008-2018年澳大利亚住宅养老机构住院时间(LOS)的变化模式,以及到2040年的可能趋势。使用改进的Cox回归模型,通过离开此类设施的风险函数和居民社会人口学特征的异质性来估计预期LOS。数据来自澳大利亚健康与福利研究所。样本内建模结果显示,估计的LOS因年龄(一般来说,老年人较短)、婚姻状况(丧偶者较长)和性别(女性较长)而异。此外,2008-2009年至2016-2017年期间,估计的LOS增长缓慢,但此后稳步下降。样本外预测表明,估计的寿命下降趋势将持续到2040年,而寿命最长的(约37个月)将出现在50-79岁的丧偶女性中。给出了相对不确定度度量。结果描绘了当前不断变化的景观和未来趋势的住宅老年护理使用在澳大利亚,这可以告知优化的住宅老年护理政策的发展,以更有效地支持老年澳大利亚人。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Expected length of stay at residential aged care facilities in Australia: current and future

Expected length of stay at residential aged care facilities in Australia: current and future
Abstract This study explores the changing patterns of the length of stay (LOS) at Australian residential aged care facilities during 2008–2018 and likely trends up to 2040. The expected LOS was estimated via the hazard function of exiting from such a facility and its heterogeneity by residents’ sociodemographic characteristics using an improved Cox regression model. Data were sourced from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. In-sample modelling results reveal that the estimated LOS differed by age (in general, shorter for older groups), marital status (longer for the widowed) and sex (longer for females). In addition, the estimated LOS increased slowly from 2008–2009 to 2016–2017 but declined steadily thereafter. Out-of-sample predictions suggest that the declining trend of the estimated LOS will continue until 2040 and that the longest LOS (approximately 37 months) will be observed among widowed females aged 50–79 years. Relative uncertainty measures are provided. The results portray the current changing landscape and the future trend of residential aged care use in Australia, which can inform the development of optimised residential aged care policies to support ageing Australians more effectively.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
18
期刊介绍: The Journal of Population Research is a peer-reviewed, international journal which publishes papers on demography and population-related issues. Coverage is not restricted geographically. The Journal publishes substantive empirical analyses, theoretical works, applied research and contributions to methodology. Submissions may take the form of original research papers, perspectives, review articles and shorter technical research notes. Special issues emanating from conferences and other meetings are also considered.
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