低海拔三角洲的快速城市化是否破坏了对气候变化的适应?全球回顾

IF 2 2区经济学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environment and Urbanization Pub Date : 2023-09-26 DOI:10.1177/09562478231192176

Gordon McGranahan, Deborah Balk, Sarah Colenbrander, Hasim Engin, Kytt MacManus

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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于海平面上升和天气变化，气候变化正使低洼沿海地区面临更大的风险。三角洲地区正在下沉，加剧了此类风险。证实过去的研究，我们发现大约10%的世界人口和更高比例的城市人口位于海拔10米以下的沿海地区(LECZ10)，亚洲在这些统计数据中占主导地位。然而，根据我们对2015年的估计，三角洲LECZ10的人口密度是非三角洲LECZ10的2.6倍，建筑密度是非三角洲LECZ10的1.7倍。LECZ10三角洲仅占世界土地面积的0.35%，但人口却超过世界的10倍(2.79亿人)。珠三角地区的人口和建成区面积增长率仍然较高，尤其是其城市。事实上，1990-2015年，三角洲LECZ10的城市化率是非三角洲LECZ10的两倍。鉴于城市化的路径依赖性，这有可能锁定不适应的定居模式。

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Is rapid urbanization of low-elevation deltas undermining adaptation to climate change? A global review

Climate change is putting low-lying coastal zones at increased risk, through higher sea levels and changes in the weather. Deltas are subsiding, compounding such risks. Confirming past research, we find roughly 10 per cent of the world’s population and an even higher share of its urban population are located in coastal areas under 10 metres in elevation (LECZ10), with Asia dominating these statistics. However, according to our estimates for 2015, the deltaic LECZ10 is 2.6 times as densely populated and 1.7 times as built-up as the non-deltaic LECZ10. The deltaic LECZ10 accounts for only 0.35 per cent of the world’s land, but over 10 times the population share (279 million people). Population and built-up area growth rates remain higher in the deltaic LECZ10, and especially its cities. Indeed, for 1990–2015 the urbanization rate of the deltaic LECZ10 is double that in the non-deltaic LECZ10. Given the path dependency of urbanization, this risks locking in maladaptive settlement patterns.

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来源期刊

Environment and Urbanization Multiple-

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

2.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Environment and Urbanization aims to provide an effective means for the exchange of research findings, ideas and information in the fields of human settlements and environment among researchers, activists and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in low- and middle-income nations and between these and researchers, international agency staff, students and teachers in high-income nations. Most of the papers it publishes are written by authors from Africa, Asia and Latin America. Papers may be submitted in French, Spanish or Portuguese, as well as English - and if accepted for publication, the journal arranges for their translation into English. The journal is also unusual in the proportion of its papers that are written by practitioners.