假新闻、难民和俄罗斯在黑海地区的战略

Corneliu-Mugurel Cozmanciuc
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引用次数: 0

摘要

“从俄罗斯联邦目前的行为来看,它对布热津斯基25年前强调的欧亚认同的依恋仍然非常重要。同样重要的是将其影响力投射到北约东翼,以恢复其在欧洲的主导地位。从逻辑上讲,要做到这一点,欧盟的民主凝聚力和欧洲-大西洋军事联盟的主导地位必须被削弱。本文旨在分析俄罗斯联邦直接参与的最近两次危机及其主导战略-乌克兰危机和白俄罗斯-欧盟边境危机。俄罗斯联邦采用的方法——假新闻和将移民武器化——代表了民主国家必须应对的复杂不安全形势。分析这些新颖的侵略手段在多大程度上促进了俄罗斯联邦在黑海的利益将是本文的中心要点。为了进行这样的分析,主要使用定性方法,例如对主要来源(官方声明和安全简报)和次要来源(关于安全危机的文章和主流媒体表达的观点)进行内容分析。该结论并非最终结论,而是将最近发生的事件置于新安全格局的更广阔视角中,新安全格局由复杂的威胁和不安全来源主导。”
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Fake news, Refugees and Russian Federation’s Strategy in the Black Sea Region
"Judging from the Russian Federation’s current behavior, its attachment to the Eurasian identity stressed by Zbigniew Brzezinski 25 years ago is still very important. Equally important is projecting its influence to the Eastern NATO Flank to revive its dominance in Europe. For that to happen, logically, the democratic cohesion of the European Union and the dominance of the Euro-Atlantic Military Alliance have to be weakened. This paper aims to analyse the two most recent crises in which the Russian Federation is directly involved and its strategy for dominance – the Ukrainian crisis and the Belarus-EU border crisis. The methods employed by the Russian Federation – fake news and weaponising migration – are representative for the complex insecurity landscape that the democratic countries have to counterbalance. Analysing the degree to which these novel methods of aggression advanced Russian Federation’s interests in the Black Sea would be the central point of the paper. To conduct such an analysis, qualitative methods were predominately used, such as content analysis of primary (official declarations and security briefs) and secondary sources (articles written and opinions expressed in mainstream media regarding the security crises).The conclusion does not aim to be a final one, but rather place the most recent events into the broader perspective of the new security landscape, dominated by complex threats and insecurity sources."
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