林地系统监测中的预测与决策算法

T. A. Lebedeva, Yu.Yu. Kopylova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

考虑了预测方法:专家估计、类比、外推和分析(模型)。专家的民意调查在预测人口稠密地区的林地使用情况时使用。类比法在介质形成函数的求值中应用最为广泛。外推法在森林经营实践中得到了广泛的应用。这些方法都很“幼稚”。利用已建立的因果关系,模型预测可以“穿透”林地生态系统的内部机制。给出了不同森林经营模式下森林覆盖流域年径流量分析模型的预测结果。研究了林地土地关系领域的决策算法;预测的阶段:研究、规划和组织。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Prediction and Decision-Making Algorithms in System Monitoring of Forest Lands
The methods of forecasting are considered: expert estimates, analogies, extrapolations and analytical (models). The experts' poll is used when forecasting the use of forest plots on the lands of populated areas. The method of analogy is most widely used in the evaluation of medium-forming functions. The method based on extrapolation is widely used in the practice of forest management. These methods are “naive”. The forecast by models allows to “penetrate” the internal mechanism of ecosystems of forest lands, using established cause-effect relationships. The results of forecasting based on analytical models of annual runoff in forest-covered watersheds under different scenarios of forest management are presented. Algorithms of decision-making in the sphere of land relations on forest lands are considered; stages of forecasting: research, program and organizational.
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