北京SARS的Gray Verhulst模型预测与教育研究

Yin Boming, Wang Yuanbo
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引用次数: 1

摘要

2003年北京SARS疫情是一个灰色系统过程,涉及政府决策、卫生防治、科学研究、交通运输、现场建筑建设、土著社区、材料供应商等多个方面。3月31日至4月18日公布的SARS病例数据不允许数据不完整。因此,笔者研究了如何将数据填充到大数组中,并于5月9日完成了北京SARS的建模。该模型成功预测SARS累计最终病例数为2512人(实际为2521人),5月21日左右SARS新增病例数进入个位数增长阶段,5月30日至6月10日期间进入零增长的饱和阶段。模型预测精度达到99.2%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Gray Verhulst modeling prediction and education research for Beijing SARS
In 2003 year, Beijing SARS epidemic is a process of gray system, which related to government decision-making, health prevention and treatment, scientific research, transportation, architectural building of site, indigenous communities, material suppliers and so on. The published data of SARS cases from March 31th to April 18th are not allowed to incomplete data. So that the author studied the ways to fill the data into the large array, and on May 9th completion the modeling of the Beijing SARS. The model successfully predicted the cumulative eventual number of SARS cases at 2512 people (the actual number is 2521 people), about May 21th new SARS cases entered the single-digit growth stage, during the days from May 30th to June 10th entered the saturation phase of zero growth. Model prediction accuracy has reached 99.2%.
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