{"title":"北京SARS的Gray Verhulst模型预测与教育研究","authors":"Yin Boming, Wang Yuanbo","doi":"10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408262","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In 2003 year, Beijing SARS epidemic is a process of gray system, which related to government decision-making, health prevention and treatment, scientific research, transportation, architectural building of site, indigenous communities, material suppliers and so on. The published data of SARS cases from March 31th to April 18th are not allowed to incomplete data. So that the author studied the ways to fill the data into the large array, and on May 9th completion the modeling of the Beijing SARS. The model successfully predicted the cumulative eventual number of SARS cases at 2512 people (the actual number is 2521 people), about May 21th new SARS cases entered the single-digit growth stage, during the days from May 30th to June 10th entered the saturation phase of zero growth. Model prediction accuracy has reached 99.2%.","PeriodicalId":294363,"journal":{"name":"2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS 2009)","volume":"188 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2009-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Gray Verhulst modeling prediction and education research for Beijing SARS\",\"authors\":\"Yin Boming, Wang Yuanbo\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408262\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In 2003 year, Beijing SARS epidemic is a process of gray system, which related to government decision-making, health prevention and treatment, scientific research, transportation, architectural building of site, indigenous communities, material suppliers and so on. The published data of SARS cases from March 31th to April 18th are not allowed to incomplete data. So that the author studied the ways to fill the data into the large array, and on May 9th completion the modeling of the Beijing SARS. The model successfully predicted the cumulative eventual number of SARS cases at 2512 people (the actual number is 2521 people), about May 21th new SARS cases entered the single-digit growth stage, during the days from May 30th to June 10th entered the saturation phase of zero growth. Model prediction accuracy has reached 99.2%.\",\"PeriodicalId\":294363,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS 2009)\",\"volume\":\"188 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2009-11-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS 2009)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408262\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS 2009)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408262","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Gray Verhulst modeling prediction and education research for Beijing SARS
In 2003 year, Beijing SARS epidemic is a process of gray system, which related to government decision-making, health prevention and treatment, scientific research, transportation, architectural building of site, indigenous communities, material suppliers and so on. The published data of SARS cases from March 31th to April 18th are not allowed to incomplete data. So that the author studied the ways to fill the data into the large array, and on May 9th completion the modeling of the Beijing SARS. The model successfully predicted the cumulative eventual number of SARS cases at 2512 people (the actual number is 2521 people), about May 21th new SARS cases entered the single-digit growth stage, during the days from May 30th to June 10th entered the saturation phase of zero growth. Model prediction accuracy has reached 99.2%.