基于IntelligEnSia的用电量预测回归分析方法

A. Kewo, R. Munir, A. Lapu
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引用次数: 8

摘要

能源可持续性是当今世界关注的焦点之一。我们已经建立了我们的解决方案,称为IntelligEnSia(智能家居能源可持续发展),专注于使用Web和Android技术平台的预测分析。在这种情况下,为了预测能源消耗,我们使用了三种回归模型:简单线性回归,KLM a和KLM b。所有模型都可以应用于预测下一时期的能源消耗,基于自变量X =天,因变量Y =电流,电压和功率。结果表明,在所有模型中,KLM的误差精度最小。这意味着处理历史上类似时期和类别的数据对预测值的影响更大。通过测试发现,各模型中对功率的依赖误差最大,对电流的依赖误差最小。这三个模型对于帮助决策者在城市能源供应和可用性方面建立更好的能源管理是有价值的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
IntelligEnSia based electricity consumption prediction analytics using regression method
Energy sustainability is one of the world focuses today. We have built our solution which is called IntelligEnSia (Intelligent Home for Energy Sustainability) that is focused on the prediction analytic using Web and Android technology platforms. In this case, to predict the energy consumption we applied three regression models: simple linear regression, KLM a and KLM b. All models can be applied to predict the next period of energy consumption based on the independent variable of X = day and dependent variables of Y = current, voltage, and power. It can be concluded that KLM a, has the smallest error accuracy among the proposed models. It means that, processing the data of similar period and category in a history, has bigger influence to the prediction value. Based on the testing, it is find out that the biggest error percentage among the models is relied on power, while the smallest is relied on current. These three models are valuable to help the decision maker in creating the better energy management in the city regarding the supply and availability.
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